Article;
Road rocky for INDIA not a repeat of 1997 ASIA-Crisis.
Comment;
There is one more
reason for borrowing abroad, low interest rates due to recession and the
investment in emerging economies did not crowded out investment in the US. But,
now, the scene is different... The money is flowing out of the emerging markets
in favor of a strong currency and higher bond yields, inflation indexed bonds,
too, because prices are rising slow in the US. Domestic investors (in the US)
would turn to an economy like this; they would be reaping higher real returns
because inflation is low. The focus of the article was growth and financing, of
current account deficit, too. INDIA needs foreign exchange inflows to finance
the CAD and to attract them the strategy will be to offer higher returns, both,
inform of a strong (domestic) currency and/or higher interest rates this will
not only increase foreign exchange inflows and will also help reduce the current
account deficit due to a stronger currency, the impact would be double, we
would be able to pay for imports and will pay less, too. But things have
changed dramatically in the past few days… the rupee has depreciated to 68
because the FM said the rupee is undervalued... There is one more theory that
says the rupee is overvalued (the REER-real effective exchange rate). The other
says it is undervalued ( Big Mac Index). I do not know why we want to devalue
even when there is no problem of unemployment to push exports and prices…
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