In economics the conclusions
change as the evidences change. The evidences from the western-world have changed
the views of economists at, “how money works in the long-run?” The old quantity
theory of money that increases in money-supply in circulation will create a
proportional increase in price of goods and services, is only partially true.
Our recent study shows that despite huge increase in the money-supply,
price-level in the developed world has gone down and there is a deflationary
bias in all almost all the developed economies. The trend has shown that as the
time has passed more money-supply has reduced interest-rate and borrowing cost
which actually reduced the prices in these economies. The old quantity theory is
by classical and supply-side economists, but they took only demand-side into
account. They concluded that more money-supply will result in higher demand and
prices. But, they failed to bring supply in the perspective because more money
supply may also reduce interest-rate on borrowing cost and price. They missed
that supply might also increase which will lower the price-level, opposite of
the old theory. Therefore our RBI governor should focus on the supply argument
to lower inflation instead of controlling demand which might lower country’s
growth-rate, an underlying objective of monetary-policy. By increasing both
demand and supply the governor would do a favour to the economy’s growth-rate.
We are already in the interest-rate-cut-cycle, but timing is also important
because supply comes with a lag. Interest-rate transmission, too...
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