Paul Krugman is arguing about the desirability and plausibility of external devaluation or depreciation
over internal devaluation that the first one is easy and quick to achieve
instead of cutting nominal wages and prices through the latter. Both are the
ways of cutting wage cost, lower prices relative to the nominal exchange rate
and increase demand for exports. In depreciation the economy tries to cut real
wages with inflation, and, lower cost of production and prices relative to the
nominal exchange rate. Inflation also increases the nominal exchange rate. Such
a policy aims two things, lower cost of production and prices, and higher
nominal exchange rate too. But to achieve depreciation it is important that
inflation increase which might not work in the liquidity trap when people save
more in expectation of higher future prices because of expansionary policies.
But, when savings go up, inflation fails to materialise and instead turn to
disinflation or deflation which increases the problem of liquidity trap by
lowering prices and interest rate. Even very large amount of money fails to
increase inflation. Lower demand increases the relative supply and put a
downward pressure on prices in the liquidity trap. However, if inflation goes up it
would lower domestic demand due to lower real wages. Therefore, depreciation in
liquidity trap world might not work, and moreover inflation and real wage cuts
would increase external demand at the cost of domestic demand. In internal
devaluation also the economy tries to reduce nominal wages and prices relative
to the nominal exchange rate to increase export demand which would also hurt
domestic demand, but wages are mostly sticky in the short-run which economists
consider responsible for adjustment to store demand. The wage rigidity points
to adjustment in other cost, profits and prices to increase external demand
which might not be as rigid as wages because all wages are consumed, like low
interest rates. But, in the liquidity trap or at the zero lower bound the
adjustment cannot be continued without increasing expected inflation which
aggravates savings and liquidity-trap by reducing domestic demand and growth.
Much of the developed world is going through the liquidity trap and
expansionary policies are unable to increase inflation and depreciation. Lose
policies have failed to increase inflation and depreciation, but expected
inflation and savings have worsened the spending, demand and growth. Therefore,
lack of depreciation has not increased external demand and expected inflation
has also lowered domestic demand. However, if the policy-makers commit
deflation with lose money-supply because lower interest-rate would increase
investment and supply, and lower the prices, they might be able to increase
both domestic and external demand without increasing inflation,
inflationary-expectations, depreciation and nominal exchange rate. It would
work same like depreciation by lowering prices and increase the real exchange
rate to increase export demand. Krugman should think about the difficulty the
Western-world is facing to increase inflation when deflation is more imminent
and more money-supply is not pushing inflation up, but rather increasing supply
and lowering prices by lowering the borrowing cost. In such a condition
deflation could be used as a strategy to increase real exchange rate and
external demand. Lower prices would also increase domestic demand. When
deflation could help achieve higher real wages and higher exchange rate and
domestic and external demand, both, then “why the policy-makers are trying to
increase inflation, which would increase external demand by increasing the
nominal exchange-rate, but would decrease real wages and internal-demand, when
they might choose to increase both by internal devaluation...? Lower prices or
inflation would increase real-wages and domestic-demand and higher real
exchange rate due to deflation could also increase external-demand...
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