Inflation and/or deflation affect the value of money
and therefore demand and supply in the economy by the way of increasing or
decreasing real wages and/or real interest rate, both as a tool to achieve
full-employment. Inflation reduces the real interest rate which pushes
investment by lowering the value of money and debt, and also reduces the real
wages and demand which decreases the cost of labor and capital and increase investment;
however disinflation or deflation increases the real interest rate and real wages
which increases the cost of investment by increasing the value of money which
might not be true. Inflation is often used to induce investment and supply by
increasing the price-level, and disinflation or deflation increase demand and
investment by decreasing the prices. Of the two, it is clear from the above
lines, that inflation reduces demand, and
disinflation or deflation increases demand, and, investment and supply, both,
by reducing prices and increasing the value of money and, real interest rate
and real wages. Therefore, we might also get closer to the point that during a
slowdown i.e. in a period of high unemployment and low demand, an increase in
real interest rate and real wages by lowering prices or inflation would
incentivize demand and investment and supply when the money-supply is loose.
Nonetheless, inflation and slowdown is hard to happen at the same time because
during slowdown there is a pressure on the price-level to go down in the
presence of higher unemployment. Nevertheless, inflation coincides with boom
and low unemployment. Thus, it is futile to expect inflation during low growth
and higher unemployment. Then, it is not worth to expect that inflation would
cut real interest and real wages to promote supply and investment, but lower
prices and more money-supply is expected to increase real wages and real
interest rate which would also increase savings and investment by increasing
the value of money. A recent study shows that prices significantly affect the
economic growth rate and the relationship between the two is negative, i.e.
lower prices increase economic growth. Among the major factors affecting prices
and economic growth are money-supply, current account deficit and
house-price-index. Therefore, the Fed’s targeting of higher income, demand and
inflation failed to increase real wage expectations and spending, and lower
real interest rate never happened during the slowdown. Notwithstanding if the
Fed had committed higher real wage expectations it would have increased
spending, and, savings and investment too by increasing the real interest by
committing a lower price-level.
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