The current wave in
economics is the Real-Business-Cycle-Theory which says that more money-supply
is likely to reduce interest rate and improve supply and reduce prices in the
long-run... however, inflation is expected in the short run due to full-employment
and protectionary policies... It concentrates on increasing demand/supply and
growth by concentrating on real variables rather than nominal variables...
Lower interest rate would decrease prices in the long-run by lowering the
borrowing cost... Higher interest rate would make the Indian companies
uncompetitive because of the higher borrowing cost, however the US, for example,
is capital rich... INDIA has comparative advantage in labor-intensive
techniques because labor is abundant and wages are cheap. Exports would only be
competitive if the industry uses more cheap labor than expensive
capital-intensive techniques which save labor. Interest rates in INDIA are high
compared to the developed-world which means INDIA needs to specialize in
labor-intensive products... Indians
would benefit from labour intensive production functions, but if the borrowing
cost is also low that would be an added advantage... Higher interest rate is
not good for domestic investment... High rural-agri interest-rate cost is
another big problem because of lack of proper credit facilities... Farmers
borrow at higher rates form the local money-lenders...
INDIA has a tight
unemployment rate on which the supply-side rests too much... INDIA''s, both,
high demand and low-supply-side are the reasons for higher prices for food...
which increases wage-demand and prices depending on productivity (wages equals
marginal product of labor) which in turn depends upon training and skills, they
might have a correlation... Moreover wages also do depend upon inflation and
inflation expectations... productivity also increases supply which may help keeping
prices stable and lower interest-rate and increasing the economic-activity and
growth... More public investment in training and skills is needed when the
private-sector is constrained by higher credit cost... Low inflation and low
wage demand would increase the economy competitiveness among peers... Skills
and training might also help keeping prices in check by increasing productivity
and supply... In order to boost productivity investment in skills development
and innovation, through investment in education and research, are equally
important.
FDI
which increases employment in INDIA should be promoted, if the domestic
investors are reluctant and cost is high... Agriculture is an
employment-intensive sector in the country, it gives employment to close to 50%
of the population, it is a major source of income in the economy... FDI in food-processing
and retail would increase farmers'' income by cutting the middleman-chain by
procuring directly for the farmers... Food-inflation is high in the country,
more investment would cut supply-side bottlenecks and reduce inflation... 100%
FDI in marketing of food products sourced locally is a major supply-side reform
to reduce the prices of food items and improve farmers income. Companies can
source directly from the farmer... It is the same FDI in multi-brand retail...
100 %... but, only in the food... Deregulation
and liberalization are not the same and sometimes liberalization might require
better regulation...
Lower supply would
increase prices... And, higher supply would reduce them (prices)... Look at the
oil prices behaviour... The world is
going through excess capacity and therefore there is deflation... INDIA is
supply constrained and slow trade liberalization has kept prices in a fix...
After full-employment imports would help lower prices... It would also help
shoot foreign demand... Income in the trading partners’ economy would go up... Imports
are important for price-stability, demand, full-employment and growth and
jobs... Interest rates are higher due to sticky prices or inflation... It also
restricts domestic investment...
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