Saturday, October 1, 2016

Lower-prices and demand/supply...




Deflation would not last too long, because demand would go-up, since lower-prices could increase demand. The most relevant example could be understood by depreciation in the exchange rate when the nominal-exchange-rate increases relative to the prices (CP) demand increases, another example is the movement of real-wages since when inflation cuts real-wages labour-demand goes-up, the last example may be cut in real-interest-rate with inflation, it increases demand for investment, and foreign demand increases, too, and growth goes-up, even if wages are more less fixed or sticky because of presence of the downward wages rigidity, but prices might go-down because there is competition in the market to increase market share and demand, and, as more firms enter market the market every-year prices go down in the long-run... Supply is scarce people would rush to buy, investors, too, firms could restrict it in the case of the supply-side weakness and higher-cost  ... After, the inventories are consumed; firms could demand more resources and prices could go-up... Economists partially explain the effect of lower-prices on the unemployment-rate, but lower-prices increase real-wages and supply of the man-power. Rich countries that pay higher-real-wages and incomes for the skills in demand attract foreign labour-force, nonetheless voluntary and frictional-employment may exist, but fail to accept the other-side, the good-side (common-side)... Lower-prices may also help to reap the economies-of scale and sell more in the short-run and earn higher-real-interest-rate and real-profits, more investment would increase the nominal and real interest rates in the future, but assume inflation is constant or low, close to  Milton Freedman’s Optimal-Monetary-Policy, he accepted that deflation rather than inflation helps increase growth. Incentive to invest increases, Capitalists would save, earn interest-income and invest more. At once place the Capitalist income increases and they save more and earn higher real-interest-rate, investor wait for lower-prices to invest and sell at higher-prices. It depends upon the ability to hold money, lower income level would have a higher propensity to consume out of a given income and save less and higher incomes increase the ability to consume, save and invest more.  Lower prices increase the real-wealth of ALL, and increase both, consumption and savings and investment and employment and demand/supply and the economic-growth. The lower borrowing-cost would increase the supply. Investors track the growth projection, lower inflation and interest-rate expectations could increase investment, employment and economic-growth.. In the rich-world prices have gone down in the long-run, as interest-rate response and threshold have varied over-time... In the long-run interest-rate or the real-interest rate have shown a downward bias because of the lower-interest-rate in the past-period, higher-supply and the lower price-level. Cutting the nominal-interest-rate would also lower the real-interest-rate if other-things, including inflation is constant, Ceteris-Paribus (CP). But, the rich world central-banks are trying to lower real-interest-rate by increasing inflation and inflation-expectations which is difficult to achieve below full-employment. And, INDIA’s unemployment rate has gone-up. The central-bank’s new-governor is appointed by the government recently with a loaded monetary-policy committee. The committee has to decide whether lower real-price of capital could stimulate supply and demand and growth to increase investment and employment with stable or low inflation...  Lower borrowing-cost would also increase export-competitiveness... The government has a counter-cyclical role to control too much volatility on the either side... Bring, the both, buyers and sellers in equilibrium by the effect of wages, interest-rate and exchange-rate. Actually, the real wages, interest rate and the exchange rate, by lowering inflation and inflation expectations which means lower cost of borrowing, higher supply and lower –prices.    

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