Expectations play a
crucial role in propelling spending in the economy which is all the important to
distinguish between the periods of boom and busts, during booms spending
increase and in busts spending goes down leading to recession, spending is one
special factor that decides how fast an economy is growing and creating job
oppourtunities, a low spending scenario demand policies that increase private
spending, consumption and investment, through monetary, fiscal and
international policies, though economists favour fiscal spending better to
counter cyclical deficit-surplus spending in the economy to strike a balance
between prices and unemployment while achieving the potential growth rate. The
growth of economy and the expectations about it has a significant effect on the
spending of the economy, the expected growth rate often based on the current
data and policies and would be policies has considerable influence on the spending
decisions, basically investment. However, the spending constitutes spending
from all sides, the consumption spending, the private sector or investment
spending and the public spending, the monetary policy tries to incentive them
through money supply and interest rate and expectations and full employment and
wage or income and expectations while maintaining price stability. The inflation
reduces demand and spending and disinflation or deflation increase spending
through interest rate and real wage or income and expectations, a lower price
level would increase interest rate cut and rate cut expectations and increase
investment and higher real wages or incomes and expectations would increase
consumption spending, guided by higher growth and growth expectations. Lower
price and price expectation are important to form expectations about interest
rate and wages which, as have been said before, increases investment and
consumption spending and growth with less pressure on the public spending
and interest rate, however in developing economies like INDIA there is a need
to increase infrastructure and basic facilities like power to crowd in private investment
and increase employment when the private sector is waiting
for the demand to revive with consumption spending due to higher wage or
incomes and expectations, the government in INDIA has pledged to double farmers
income, increase minimum wages and has implemented the 7th Pay Commission,
nonetheless the real GDP has seen a reduction from the mid 2016 which has been further
lowered by Demo and uncertainty created by GST. However, spending must come either
in the form of consumption and investment, or both, to arrest falling growth
and growth expectations. China has grown for thirty long years by projecting a
higher warranted growth rate and expectations on the back of its huge
population, but now receding, INDIA too has the same advantage and could grow
at higher rates if everybody is gainfully employed with the right spending. .
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