Normally, the
economists view higher prices and inflation and expectations to cut real
interest rate, real wages and real exchange rate and expectations to make the
economy competitive domestically and externally or globally in order to
incentivize demand and supply, and, investment and employment, and expectations
to achieve the equilibrium, or NAIRU – the non accelerating inflation rate of
unemployment, of full employment growth rate and expectations. But, they fail
to recognize that inflation reduces real spending and savings and investment
and employment and expectations while increasing the nominal interest rate,
nominal wages and the nominal exchange rate which makes the economy lose
competitiveness and demand and supply, however exports may increase through
higher exchange rate. They think that higher prices would incentivize the
supply side to increase employment and demand, but when prices increase, they
negatively affect demand and spending first and then lower savings and
investment and employment and expectations which would lower growth and expectations.
Generally, people expect that price of everything increase in the long run so
they need higher incomes and savings to achieve the desired standard of living.
Nonetheless, if people expect higher prices in the future they might rush to
buy which could further increase demand and prices, inverse of the expectation
that lower prices would delay spending and it would again lower the prices.
This has been observed by the Knife Edge Problem due to expectations; lower
growth and price expectations are cumulative in effect and also produce trade
cycles and vice versa. The higher prices to increase investment and supply
first reduce demand which might set the precedent for lower prices because
supply would outpace demand due to lower real wages despite employment, higher
prices cut real wages and demand as experienced by the developed countries,
inflation and lower real wages have reduced demand relative to supply, even
though investment and employment has increased which has lowered price and
growth expectations.
Notwithstanding, if we
assume lower prices it would increase real interest rate, real wages and the
exchange rate which would increase demand and spending and savings and
investment and supply and expectations.
Economists think that
lower real wages, real interest rate and exchange rate incentivize supply, but they
reduce domestic demand and imports, but increases exports which also depend on
the external demand and global growth and are sometimes uncertain. Nevertheless,
higher real wages, real interest rate
and real exchange rate increase domestic demand, imports and exports due to
higher spending and savings and investment to achieve full employment, lower
prices would also help contain cost and increase competitiveness and supply.
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