Saturday, December 1, 2018

Capital, Data, Oil, Prices......



When the Central Bank can print money, then, why capital is scarce (?) which is not, if followed could increase investment and supply and lower unemployment and prices, more employment would also increase production and reduce prices.


The only problem is that credit should increase both demand and supply, [lower prices would increase demand and then prices and then supply (oversupply happens due to lack of data)], or productivity in the areas where we have higher price and price expectations to increase supply and keep prices stable which is likely to further reinforce lower and stable prices due to stability in the monetary policy.....


At lower prices oil producing countries would sell more... Higher prices lower demand... They fear depleting resources even when oil production curbs have been the issues behind higher oil prices... when population growth has been going down and more investments are following, effect of renewables are the contributing factor... to lower oil prices... higher oil prices are not natural...


When price falls it means supply relative to demand has increased, people would get more and would demand less than before especially the investment demand, consumption demand might also delay, which may further reduce price until all the stock is consumed and price stop falling...


When people expect lower prices in the short run they also increase selling, which further reduce prices as in the stock market or any market, the same short sellers...


Lower price increases lower price expectations bcoz more will be supplied to adjust profits, people would supply more... Lower price expectations would delay investment demand and consumption demand...


Inflation lowers demand, both, consumption and investment by reducing savings, higher interest rate further increases inflation through higher borrowing cost that also lowers supply and increase prices.....


Prices move between higher/lower supply and high/lower demand and higher/lower prices or demand supply and price bands amid lack of exact demand, supply and price data or equations... Lower prices do the opposite, and further reinforce lower prices...



We also need data on demand to manage supply and prices, since land is scarce, to increase productivity in agriculture and industry...


Notwithstanding, stable prices and full employment are the goal...


The rupee has appreciated in the month. The RBI might adjust interest cost of exporters to the loss in the exchange rate in order to sustain competitiveness...


Last time when oil prices were at 30 Saudi arab declined to cut production because it might make it lose market share since its cost is too low to keep shale out ... higher prices could make it uncompetitive...


The economic growth in INDIA has faltered in Q2 to 7.1% from 8.2% in Q1. Hope the RBI at the next monetary policy review oblige us with a 25 basis cut in the sight of low inflation due to lower oil prices and imported inflation due to appreciation in the rupee in the month of November (we can easily expect the data), also in the face of higher real interest rate and less than potential growth rate...


Raghuram Rajan promised 1.5 - 2 % of real rates... Higher real interest rate would restrict demand consumption and investment...


Current real rates are too high in the economy which has made capital less productive and business lose competitiveness...


The governor is doing right to conduct dollar selling and OMOs the same time... it would not let hardening in the bond yields and lower bond prices and exit leading to depreciation... leading to further outflows...


Higher interest rates are not good for FPIs...


The US has deferred tariffs on the exports from China which shows that the US and China know that tariffs and trade barriers are bad for the investment and economic growth including the stock market...


China''s stock market is down much due to trade war and tariff fears and the US is conscious that higher tariffs could increase inflation and interest rate that is likely to affect the stocks in the US... 



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