Thursday, April 4, 2019

NYAY and Unemployment and The Monetary Policy...




The need to make people independent by providing skills and jobs is overrided by policies to make people dependent and increase scope as vote banks...



NYAY has targeted only the employed and promised to support their income... Atleast no one has put that unemployed would get Rs 12, 000/month...


Probably NYAY has nothing to do with unemployment; it is an income support for the working group earning less than Rs 12, 000... Are unemployed going to get complete 12, 000...?



How NYAY is going to help unemployed... (?), when the problem has been unemployment.



NYAY has overestimated the cost of living... Rs 9, 000 could be appropriate for a family or a household given the existing subsidies... But, it has not targeted the unemployed... There is still scope for unemployment benefits and dbt for education and skills...



There is still need for unemployment benefits transfer b’coz NYAY has only targeted the poor employed by its income support scheme...



Unemployment benefits are an important part of the Social Security...



The government should promote self education and self certification after graduation...



Modi's 10% reservation to economic weaker, people earning less than 8 lakh, is a bigger game changer, it covers a larger population, including the middle class too, besides poor...



Recently Raghuram Rajan raised doubts about the employment and growth data. But, Rajan himself never valued unemployment data while deciding the monetary policy during his stint when price stability and unemployment, both, are important from policy point of view... He never pointed that unemployment data are too much cumbersome...



Government's commitment to low fiscal deficit and better supply side management, especially the food, and lower debt and inflation have been slowly recognised by the RBI... But, had not translated to lower inflation expectations, by RBI, and lower interest rate...



After demo the RBI had to cut rates to increase falling growth expectations... which hit the already bottoming out economy and slowed the economy further... which was further hit by oil prices and depreciation and two successive rate hikes...



The RBI had not been helpful for more production and employment... lower borrowing cost could also increase competitiveness and demand/supply and growth....



Higher interest rate would be bad for, both INDIA and the US... A strong dollar could further increase depreciation and increase oil prices and CAD and outflows... and higher interest rates in INDIA... A US recession would help INDIA in terms of lower commodity and oil prices and inflows...



Lower inflation and inflation expectations might not increase the nominal exchange rate transmission... means lower inflation and expectations premium...



Today the RBI in its monetary policy review delivered a 25 basis points rate cut even when household inflation expectations has remained benign while maintaining a neutral stance which points that further rate cuts might be possible going ahead…



The RBI must have avoided interest rate cut expectations since it could delay demand worsening growth... It had better provided a 50 basis cut while maintaining a neutral stance dependent on the incoming data given higher real interest rate compared to peer countries...



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