Managing or stabilising prices and expectations
would be crucial for spending and growth... People''s consumption and
especially investment decisions rely on growth and price expectations...
Lower prices increase investment and demand/supply
and price and growth expectations and higher prices reduce demand/supply and
price and growth expectations...
Budget may help reduce volatility and exuberance in
the economy by stabilising price or inflation and growth and expectations close
to its potential...
There is a slowdown in housing that employs mostly unskilled labour in large
quantities which could go down leading to lower demand and prices, housing,
too, but that would increase demand and price expectations...
Any price forecasting should entail that though
price is volatile, but the situation can change in the medium to the long
run...
Prices follow a cycle where prices move between high
and low and lower prices mean higher demand/supply and price expectations and
higher prices mean lower demand/supply and price expectations...
When prices fall people delay spending which further
reinforce lower price and expectations and vice versa... Lower prices of
housing could increase demand and price expectations...
Foreign debt has risk of exchange rate or
depreciation in the currency... Borrowing in domestic currency may hedge
against the risk of default...
The US borrows in its own currency that is why loans
are free of the risk since it can mint money and pay loans...
Trump has imposed tariff on himself (US)... The goal
is to increase productivity and lower prices and increase demand, at lower
prices suppliers increase supply to increase profits...
Expecting or forecasting prices is risky... Even
Fed's forecast of inflation has failed... Even after the best of equations
there is always a stochastic or error variable or term....
LTCGT (INDIA) could be negative for big longterm
investors... For small traders it is not a big stroke... but, it has definitely
affected invest and sell off... Budget could think of increasing investment...
LTCG (Tax) is discouraging longrun and big
investments which directly affect the stockprices... The corrections and
recoveries we have seen during the past one and a half year could be attributed
to LTCGT, people are booking profits and are trying to save 10% in tax...
LTCGT prompt investors to increase profits by
selling stocks...
There is a vast service sector of hourly or daily or
monthly or workly wages earners who do not pay direct taxes, but indirect taxes
or gst, gst revenue may help gauge demand and growth... GST is paid by all...
Lower inflation has increased real interest rate on
savings which has lowered investment and real interest rate expectations to
revive growth...
If savings do not increase investment, return on
savings would be low because people would borrow less and would pay less
premium plus inflation plus expectations and risks in the long run, short run
is safer and more certain than the long run, more uncertain, which runs counter
to the argument that save/invest for the longrun...
This is also the reason that the longrun real
interest rates are higher than the shortrun real interest rates...
When the central bank increases moneysupply it first
reduces longrun rates and bond yields then the shortrun rates... If shortrun
rates are higher than the longrun interest rates it means people expect low
inflation expectations in the longrun...
Little deficit in rains could help increase food
prices and farmers'' income and demand and growth... If they (farmers) expect
lower prices they may increase supply, but on the contrary they decrease supply
which increases prices and reduce demand...
On the otherhand, if they expect higher prices they
may reduce supply to increase returns, but they increase supply which lowers
prices and income and demand increases...
Any attempt, to increase/decrease prices through
expectations either reduce demand and increase supply or increase demand and
reduce supply and could reinforce lower/higher price expectation ... We need to
balance demand and supply on the production frontier to keep prices stable...
Since the govt has given 10% reservation to upper
cast earning less than 8 Lakh yearly it should tax less that group... probably
in the lowest tax bracket...
MGNRES has just provided unskilled-unproductive-low
paid jobs, but how long we could keep it going, the govt has artificially
created jobs in the rural areas, urban locations still lack even that kind of
job guarantee programme...
Skilling could create jobs according to demand and
could help reduce fiscal spending... and would make people independent and not
dependent on the State... NREGA should be a skill oriented on job training and
job oppourtunity, thereafter...
The govt must encourage rural population to invest
in food processing and exports...
Is it feasible that the govt run job guarantee
programme with unskilled and low paid jobs which hurt income and demand...
creating jobs would crowd out investment and employment by the private
sector... ?
Low paid jobs are a form of exploitation for
political mileage... MGNREGS is not sustainable because it is a load on the
govt finance which is increasing and increasing... It is increasing demand
after reducing demand at other places...
Automation skills could further increase productivity
of labour and lower public borrowing could also increase productivity of
capital by lowering interest rates...
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