Budget, Business and Bandh...

The gov and rbi could do little to lower or increase prices to clear excess supply/demand and even it may delay spending and growth... Other things remaining stable, if the rbi maintains a neutral stance or status quo, it would help stabilise demand/supply and prices and speculation by consumers and investors and producers... But, if it increases interest rate... supply and employment and demand would go down which would further increase price or inflation and expectations and worsen unemployment which could prolong adjustment.... and vice versa...

Assuming inflation at the target, the rbi may decide nominal interest rate as per the demand and supply of money in the market or let the market decide... Money supply has been too much regulated... or peg repo rates to the bonds, short and long... Banks must match interest rate with the bond market rates....

Transport/oil demand and prices is the chief reflector of demand in the economy and therefore... Revenue from oil has increased in the past few years since oil prices fell from over $ 110 per barrel to $ 60-70... But taxes remained more or less same... which could help reduce deficit... It is also an indicator of demand in the economy... and they have showed 15% growth this year…

…..when INDIA exports more petroleum products than it imports...

Including oil, real estate, electricity and booze in the GST could reduce uncertainty over investment as these have a very large base which could help shore-up the GST revenue... Land, labour and capital reforms could further increase certainty or predictability for business...

If banks pass on the rate cuts to the borrower and invest profits in gov and corporate bonds it could compensate loss, due to lower interest rates... More money supply would reduce interest rate and could increase spending... No crowd out, but crowd in... Higher bond prices would benefit investors... Gov would pay less in interest payment and would also increase gov spending...

Lower income tax could increase consumption and saving/investment and demand and tax revenue as the growth revives...Hope it is implemented soon and not just an expectation...

If banks do not pass rate cuts, corporate lower taxes, business gst and gov oil prices... It really becomes difficult to increase demand, people expect them and they are delaying spending… The RBI and Gov are on the same page... Total tax exemption upto Rs 8 lkh is expected as LTCGT cut... or only after 3 years......

The gov needs to increase spending also spending like lower tax during slow down and consolidation during high growth to control demand/supply and prices or unemployment and inflation which may delay spending from the expectations channel... People speculate on prices, both lower and higher... Lower prices increase the value of money for wagers and higher prices increase profits, but they would help if it really happens... Otherwise we lose... growth may be delayed too due to hold on investment...

The 1% has 90% share in the product (GDP)... It would help (lower income tax).... to the common man... transmission to consumers prices could increase the chance of a bounce back, real wages and incomes would increase... Higher rural income would further boost demand... Low prices would reduce the cost of investment lower prices lower wage demand and competitiveness... Lower borrowing cost would be expansionary, too....

Unskilled workers have been in large supply which has depressed productivity and real wages... Providing more skills could increase productivity and wages... Though, over supply of skilled in sectors like medical and engineering could also lower demand of such professionals relative to supply... CAs and CSs supply have been limited which has pushed up demand and incomes... the same could be applied in agriculture and construction...

The gov may put a skills cess on the superrich... and provide unskilled skills based on the industry demand and supply only accordingly...

The US can always print currency and there is no scope for default and settles imports in the USD... That is why dollar is safe (heaven currency)... Everybody wants the US tech and USD... weapons, too... and, now shale, everybody want it because it is cheap... Same with China which has queued Renmibi to emerge as a substitute for USD, everybody wants Chinese goods, but it uses USD for payment to gain USD and depreciation to gain competitiveness through exchange rate... Any economy which has high demand for its exports should settle trade in its own currency... imports too... would have a stable currency compared to others, like the US... Its demand and price would increase...

There is no such certainty that when recession will strike in the US and what could be the bottom and how long it would take? But, there is scope that the Fed would follow neutral or zero real interest rate, nominal interest rate minus inflation, or it would balance inflation with nominal interest rate cancelling out each other, to keep the value of money...

Recently, Gita Gopinath said that in 2020 the real rate of growth of the GDP would be 4.8% … The 4.8% is the average of real-GDP growth rate of the four quarters... The total growth rate of the four quarters would be 4.8% x 4 equals 19.20%... no doubt in one or two quarters growth rate could cross 6 and even 7 %...

Why identification of genuine citizens and refugees is being opposed, especially when they are majority from the terrorism affected areas like Pak... and Afgha...? How would the Gov provide benefits to genuine poor citizens and refugees, according to the Act, INDIA if they are left unidentified? What could be wrong just with identification?

….ye jo dalit-muslim gathjod, jiski baat tukde-tukde gang k sapna hai... desh ko barbaad kar dega... caa nahin hoga to jaroort ka paisa garib tak kaise pahuchega... shame same to vote bank politics... In logon ko jail ya detention mein dala ja sakta... Save your self...

They are protesting against a law and the spirit of Constitution, which is unconstitutional... The businesses are not investing due to instability created by such... bandh would destroy business... This is totally unproductive; they would unite HINDUS, too, which is a majority which would vote for the incumbency...