Rajan mentioned an
important point which is missing here "two much low interest rates offers
easy risk taking and inefficient firms would enter the market and their chances
to fail later are more than efficient ones." I would like to differentiate
between efficient and inefficient firms here and that is also in-terms of
risk-capacity and exploiting a given situation, even a particular rate of
interest (even high-interest-rates). The point is not only higher or lower
interest rates. It is not difficult to find interest-rate-regimes with high
interest rate and high investment in today's comparison. The point is making
use of information and rational expectations theory. If a slight manipulation
of expectations can get you results, what could be better than that? Efficient
firms are normally better, than inefficient, on almost all the fronts. They
have a capacity for higher initials investments and they can also invest in
training and education. It happens. All the Central bank has to do is
facilitate such actions and discourage excessive risk taking. I do not think there
is a need to discourage? The Government can further motivate them in form of
tax or tax breaks. Tax breaks? Not possible because of a greater need for
fiscal consolidation voices. But, in form of lower taxes the Government can
definitely help. I read about multiplier in the morning so it is fresh in my
mind. Initial investment by a firm will create some multiple of investment in
some other sectors of the economy and the tax-base would also be larger than
today. Again, lower taxes would leave firm with more disposable profits/income
which will be spent and again the multiplier will work. Means more large tax
base. The Government can calculate the value of multiplier for next several
periods that would help in the consolidation, and, also in finding the means
and generating the means.
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