"Growth in the
nineties averaged about 6% but now we are consistently doing better at 8%. This
has led to a sense of complacency and even triumphalism amongst policymakers
and the media. The ‘second fastest growing economy’ appears to be waiting
comfortably for China to stumble so that we can perhaps even lay claim to being
the fastest growing economy in the world.
Some among us look
wistfully at 10% and wonder why with our demographic dividend we do not do
significantly better than 8%. Others argue that even the current 8% growth is
jobless in nature and that what we need is a lower rate coupled with jobs
creation. Then there are the inclusive growth mandarins in the ruling party who
simply want funds allocated to relevant vote banks irrespective of whether the
extra funds are the product of faster growth or higher allocation from a
smaller pie...."
Economictimes/The 8%
complacency trap/Sumant Sinha
Comment:
Higher growth rates are
the result of higher inflation targets, and if we choose inflation at 8% we can
grow at 8%, if we choose inflation at 10% we can achieve a growth rate of 10%
and so on. No doubt we are the youngest economy and the scope for boosting
consumption is enormous in the years to come. But the composition of poor in
our economy is also enormous and does not support the idea of choosing
inflation and growth at 10% because the income of the poor is not increasing at
the same rate. And, if we can make sure that their income also increases with
the same rate we can choose to grow at whatever rate we like. Nevertheless the
idea remains same INCLUSIVE-GROWTH. If our growth rate does not include the
dream of making poor healthy and wealthy all wisdom will be of no use. Some
grow and some choose the way to grow to grow. The choice is ours, we keep
ourselves before the economy or we choose economy before ourselves. When we
talk about economy we talk about rich and poor alike and the same time. But how
can we forget about its composition. It is the demand of the poor which is
going to drive the economy for a very long-period of time. The rich do not care
about inflation, it simply does not matter to them or even if it matters it
matter a little. They do not curtail consumption or fall short on our
nutrition-calorie chart.
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