During the past decade Germany has
relied on low prices and wages, in sum-up internal devaluation, to keep its
exports competitive which can be said to be a good policy in
international-trade. Both internal devaluation and depreciation of domestic
currency affect prices to increase demand, but with a difference... The former
directly lowers prices by a consistent monetary policy while the latter
decreases prices relative to income by depreciating home currency to increase
demand for exports... However, the
latter option was not available to the country since it is a part of currency
union and shares its currency with many other countries... External devaluation
was not possible... And, the trick, internal devaluation, did the job... Apart
from China , Germany is
another country which has considerable surplus in international-trade... Its
foreign-trade policy can be said to be a success as far as its exports and
surplus is concerned... But, lowering prices and wages are constrained by lower
nominal price and wage rigidity, a corner-stone of the Keynesian Economics
because it helps clear the markets and achieve full-employment, another goal of
policies, after price-stability... But, the trend/pattern we have found that
there is nominal downward wage rigidity but prices show no such pattern...
there has been a consistent pressure on prices, in almost all the developed
countries, to go down which has reasons, too... Because, in advanced countries,
as compared with developing ones, where population growth rate and pressure is
less, supply easily outstrips demand and in case of a deteriorating external
environment, inventories easily start piling-up and economic activity
slows-down and especially after the Minsky-moment which says there is an
increase in risk-taking and debt after a period stability... Too much debt is
responsible for low demand... Economists say that inflation erodes the value of
debt because value of money goes down... It is good for the debtor, but bad for
the creditor... Economists look to favor the debtor and ignore the creditor who
has worked to earn that income; therefore, i think the economists should start
favoring the creditor... Low real interest rates are good for investment, but
bad for savings... Savings are discouraged and investment is encouraged... The
question is how is this going to work because without savings how investment is
possible...? To keep the savings match investment, or the other way, too... We
need to keep savings attractive enough otherwise we will fall in the liquidity-trap
because people will prefer accumulating reserves instead of bank deposits...
therefore, to avoid liquidity- trap the central-banks must keep the bank
deposits attractive... Very low levels of interest rates are not good for
savings and investment, too... However without its own currency Germany will
find it difficult to move from here... Further, internal devaluation will
require Germany 's
own currency... In internal devaluation prices can not fall below the lowest
denomination of Euro and for further fall in prices Germany will have to float a lower
denomination of Euro... And, external devaluation is not possible without its
own currency and the gains will be shared by the other countries in the Union ...
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