Friday, February 20, 2015

Also, delay the nightmare (EU)...


Negative nominal interest rate also means people are discouraged to save and are encouraged to borrow... but, when even high money supply does not stoke investment and demand... precisely means in the liquidity-trap when people expect prices to go down because of very-low interest-rate cost and low prices, beyond inventories, hamper new investment and also because of uncertainty over unexpected-lag or delay in rate-hike...  Instead of saying negative interest rate in EU, i would like it to call a zero-lower-bound, or liquidity-trap in the union... It is good for investment but bad for savings... People do not prefer savings in banks in the trap... And, to improve commercial banks balance-sheet the central-bank prints-money... the Fed never accepted, but, the QE was started only when savings in bank because of liquidity-trap went down and they had few monies to lend... QE meant we cannot reduce rates more and to increase inflation and reduce real interest rates more money is needed... Most of the money went off-shore in expectation of higher yield that’s right... Lower saving and higher spending is not consistent when unemployment reached historic-highs, means low income and demand for the economy and could only be achieved higher by more money-supply (QE...)... It was, and is, all manifested in low consumer-spending and inflation... People and firms were delaying purchases... because debt was too high... The economy was overleveraged but interest-rate remained low even when capital became scarce... Nobody tried to boost savings and everybody tried to increase investment... The EU has done almost the same mistakes the US did... Except differences in private and public debt levels... different hues across Europe ... But, debt is debt when it goes up too much interest-rate should follow to curb bubble, a smooth transition... a bypass to price-stability and full-employment... means more upward-pressure on incomes to create demand even for exports through depreciation and internal-devaluation... It has now been in fashion to give domestic employment and income a boost through competitive-devaluation, external and internal... More money-supply will increase more money in the importers hands... he will import more domestic products... Income should be a very important variable in all the models... It increases demand... and more importantly real incomes... As the economy approaches to full employment wages and incomes start rising which is also good for the fiscal picture... It is sad but the EU has to be dependent on tax-payers money like every other government for public-debt-relief... It is sad because high debt-now will force the government to increase tax later... Austerity in this situation will fast-forward us to that high-tax regime nightmare... We are almost trying to pay debt in the same period, the recession-period... Apart from genuine austerity as per this period, an equitable distribution of interest-payments over next generation, a kind of delay in correcting the debt-picture, will definitely help reduce the hardships of unemployment in this period... More employment means more income and demand... Taxes, too... Ofcourse the Government can delay longer...

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