Blind faith in the economic policies of the
developed-world has landed China in trouble as far as debt and housing-bubble
in the economy are in focus. By more and more easing through government bonds
purchases China wants to lower interest-rate on public-debt to spend more on
infrastructure, but by not lowering interest rate directly it wants to keep
housing bubble and private-debt in check. Nonetheless the objective behind
easing has been the devaluation of the yuan, everybody knows it. Chinese have
relentlessly applied loose monetary-policy and think that it is a panacea for
all ailments, but in not a less developed economy with supply-constraints,
still, more money supply will always increase overheating and price-bubbles
near full-employment. The economy has gone through many currency-re-denominations
which is used to avoid too much increase in inflation and loss in the value of
money, but, lately, it has also learnt to increase money-supply and depreciate
the home-currency, and, give exports, employment and growth a push. The money
from easing is flowing out of the economy after quantitative-easing which is
responsible for higher interest-rates for the economy. Nevertheless, in the
absence of capital-flight to abroad the money would have positively affected
the scale of ability of banks to sell credit at lower interest-rate will increase.
Higher capital inflows of foreign-investment (dollars and euros) have kept the
yuan under pressure to appreciate, but PBOC is buying more and more dollars to
keep the yuan depreciated. So at one place domestic capital is flowing out and
at the other, in form of foreign-capital is flowing in. Not much difference. There is a considerable trade-off between the
gains from domestic monetary-policy and foreign-exchange-rate-policy, however
the whole idea is to keep yuan devaluated which means more export competitiveness
and growth in the face of slowing domestic-demand because of overheating and
high interest rates. Economists are right when they lecture China on
concentrating on domestic-demand. China
is trying to cash foreign demand at the expense of domestic-demand when its own
expansionary monetary-policy and depreciation is inviting overheating in the
domestic economy. To avoid this it needs tightening, and, not easing to avoid
inflation and bubbles. More money-supply and inflation will hurt domestic value
of yuan and demand within the economy.
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