Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Japan still in liquidity-trap...


The value of Japanese Yen domestically is too low... average wages earning perday in Japan is around 7000 Yen... people are carrying lots of money even for day to day expenses... In the US daily wages are around 80 $... 100 times less than Japan... Therefore, if we want to increase demand, inflation and economic-growth in Japan, we will need a very much big stimulus to affect the threshold for the response we like to see... The US pumped trillions of dollars through the QE to generate demand, inflation and growth... And if Japan wants to do to the same it will need a 100 times bigger stimulus without time horizon commitment because the Japanese economy is in the liquidity-trap, people are delaying purchases in expectation of lower prices ahead, monetary-easing will make them delay longer... Any increase in money supply is supposed to increase wages/income and demand... but, nominal wages, when value of money is too low, should increase so much (should be big enough) so that it generates demand and inflation... But, real-wages can rise when we inflation falls and more when prices go below the base year... The Japanese economy has left many inflation base years and there is a lot of scope to compress prices, increase real-wages, demand and growth... Japan should stop avoiding deflation... Lower prices are more expansionary, Pigou-effect... The transmission of higher money-supply to inflation and higher interest rate has broken-down... Liquidity-trap is real...

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