Keynes predicted the euthanasia of the creditor or
rentier of the capital because he thought that land and labour are scarce, but
capital has no reason to be scarce, because the central-bank can print money to
stoke demand/supply to achieve full-employment. In the developed-world the
central-banks have pumped so much money in the system that has made money so
cheap that pushed interest-rate rock-bottom (Japan, US, Europe). In these
countries, capital is cheap and not scare, at all; interest rates are at
zero-lower-bound. These economies are very close to that (Keynes’ concept of)
euthanasia, when interest rates are almost zero. If we take Japan as an example
which is reeling under recession for past two decades and interest-rate near
zero, euthanasia of the creditor seems very plausible. In all the three
economies interest-rate is near zero and they are also probably in the famous
Keynesian liquidity trap in which people accumulate reserves, when nominal
interest-rate is zero and cannot fall further and in the expectation of lower
prices forth they delay purchases.
Prices reflect scarcity and higher-prices reflect higher scarcity, even
prices of labour (wages) and capital (interest-rate). During downturns both are
not scarce as there is a cut down on investment and interest-rate (or increase
in money-supply) and employment and wages (or increase in unemployment and
labour-force). In an attempt to increase
demand and growth, these banks failed to understand the importance of savings
which is also a function of real interest-rate (nominal interest rate minus
inflation). It has also led to capital-fight. Moreover, in another attempt to
make economy competitive we have also cut-down on real-wages (nominal wages
minus inflation). The continuous increase in money supply and inflation has
kept real-interest-rate-and-wages and demand low. Moreover, slowing population
growth rate has also affected demand negatively. The central-banks are trying
to push the economy through money-supply which is supposed to increase spending
and inflation, but this is even going to hurt demand by lowering
real-interest-rate-and-wages and might not work in the liquidity-trap. Savings
also do have a positive effect on demand through lower interest rate and higher
investment. Moreover, inflation will also lower real-wages. These banks
policies might have a negative effect on demand by increasing inflation. The
Fed is trying to push prices up which is opposite of the argument that increase
in real-wages will also increase demand, the Pigou-Effect. The effect is also helpful in the
liquidity-trap by increasing real wages and demand. Growth-rate of the economy
will increase. The Fed should try to release the repressed demand by increasing
real-wages and stop inflation targeting and let the prices fall to increase
demand. Lower interest rate, as they are, will help increasing investment. The
interest rate in these countries might remain very low, probably zero, for an
indefinite period of time (may be forever) because in these capital rich
countries, capital is not scarce anymore...
Thursday, May 14, 2015
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