There
is almost an all around agreement that Rajan (our RBI Governor) will cut
repo-rate to increase money-supply for investment and consumption demand as
inflation has been on a downward trajectory... Monetary-policy is considered to
be a supply-side tool to increase employment and growth, and higher money-supply
will help by reducing interest-rate and increasing investment, means
more-supply of goods and services... More supply is likely to lower prices, the
law of supply... Rajan is supply-side economist and he should understand that
more investment is needed to remove supply-side problems in agriculture and infrastructure
and reduce inflation... Investment and savings depend on real-interest-rate,
nominal-or-market-interest-rate minus inflation... Real-interest-rate in INDIA
is near 3% (8%, market interest-rate, minus, 5%, inflation) and our Governor
has reiterated that he wants to keep real-interest-rate around 1-1.5% to keep
savings attractive... Savings are positively correlated with
real-interest-rate... In the same way lower real-interest-rate is also supposed
make investment attractive... Therefore, as per the Indian condition with lower
inflation in the recent data there is a scope to cut real-interest-rate by
atleast 1% or 100 basis points... However, Rajan will oblige industry with rate
cuts only in several rounds. Moreover, the RBI Governor would also like to
match credit demand with deposit growth rate which (the credit-growth-rate) has
also been lagging behind due to higher-interest-rate in the past... Lower real-interest-rate is important to
increase investment and improve the supply-side problems... Rajan might agree...
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