IMF has recently
declared INDIA a hot-spot for global investor and even better among emerging
markets due to its equanimity underscored by its reliance on domestic demand
for growth, low global commodity price regime because it is mainly an importer,
its upcoming rate-cut-cycle, the idea to explore manufacturing and exports possibility with low wages compared to the peers, its high rate of population growth rate, a reservoir of labor and demand, low fiscal and current-account
deficit and its pace of expansion and growth, both actual and potential, present
best investment and business returns... However, regulations still constrain the ease of doing business... Nevertheless, INDIA has improved alot on competitiveness
in a recent rating-report and the government is conscious about problems of
doing business, both foreign and domestic... Businesses employ people which is
good for demand in the market through multiplier which creates income and tax to
improve human-lives... Notwithstanding, the burden of a large number of poor-people,
also due to high population growth-rate and
unskilled and unproductive labor-force could not be underestimated...
Nonetheless, unprecedented public-spending in a developing economy would
increase demand and prices (inflation)... The supply of money either by fiscal
or monetary-policy should match or increase availability of goods and
services... If the policies only aim at increasing money it would not solve the
problem, but might lower demand-supply and growth by increasing inflation and
interest-rate... The economy might start de-accelerating... Higher prices keep
demand and supply low because interest-rate will increase... The question
naturally arises that if inflation is high then why the central-banks restrict
supply by increasing interest-rate when they may actually increase supply by
cutting rates? Low cost of capital might help improve supply and lower prices...
lower cost will also lower prices and inflation... When central-banks try to
decrease demand to lower inflation it also lowers supply which puts the economy
on a down-path... a contraction... Demand and supply are not independent from
each-other rather they are different names to address the same economic-activity...
When central-banks try to regulate demand by increasing interest-rate it also
decreases supply and thereby worsening inflation... However, zero-lower-bound
(of interest-rate) is the limit for interest-rate-cut to increase domestic
supply after that foreign supply comes into play which might help to store
supply and demand and price-stability, actually lower prices to increase
economic-activity and growth-rate... So far economists have attributed high
inflation to high money-supply and demand, and, not to the actual supply and
demand of goods and services which might be positively correlated with low
interest-rates...
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