It is worth a thought
that economic-models assume zero inflation in the long-run. Inflation is a
short-run deviation from the equilibrium price-level. Economists think of the
long-run as self-correcting. But when deciding long-run rates expected inflation
plays an important role because the economy first consumes and then saves for
the future; if they expect higher inflation based on the current situation they
would also save more for the future too and more savings result in lower
spending means lower demand and prices. Interest rate would go down. On the contrary,
if they expect deflation based on the current condition they would save less-spend
more which might increase demand and prices and interest rate. People expect higher
interest rate if there is inflation because the monetary-policy would work to
control inflation. Generally, prices and interest rate move in the same
direction. Expected inflation would increase the long-run rates, higher than
the short-run rates. The long-run rates are higher than the short –run rates
which shows that depending on the economic –policy people expect inflation in
the long-run which is opposite of what the economic models assume that
inflation in the long-run would be lower or zero. Keynes long ago accepted that labour and other
factors of production might not be abundant but capital has no reason to be
scarce since the central bank can print money to finance the economy.
Gold-Standard off-load was a big move in that direction which was later used to
print notes, buy foreign exchange and devalue to gain exports. Keynes foresees capital
as not scarce in the long-run. Our zero interest-rate regimes in much of the developed
world do support Keynes view that capital is not necessarily scarce. Higher long-run
interest rate is against Keynes argument of lower interest rate.
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