China’s economic
expansion of the last three decades has come to a point where employment and
productivity could not increase with the pace realized during the boom. An
economy swings between boom and busts due to increase in money-supply and
inflation and deflation/disinflation. Monetary-policy cycle of expansion and
tightening decide the level of employment and trade-cycles. Expansion turns the
boom and tightening turns the burst. Every economy goes through booms and bursts.
However, the length of trade cycles might vary from time to time and country to
country, but it may also affect other countries through trade. Moreover, the
economy is also on the knife-edge which means when the policy-makers try to
reduce inflation and growth it would lower them more than expected and when
they choose to increase both, they increase them more than expected. It is true
that the economy goes through boom and bust over a period of time. Booms can go
as long as employment increase, but after full-employment inflation increases
which reduces domestic demand. Depreciation increases exports, but at the cost
of domestic demand. Higher inflation would lower real wages. Full-employment
may increase supply to a level, but productivity may be increased through more
investment in innovation, but it is a natural process of mind and may or may
not happen at once. China is boxed by full-employment but if it manages to
increase productivity it might continue expanding at a higher growth-rate. If
more money supply increases productivity and wages then the expansion is
justified, however if it increases inflation and wages it would reduce
competitiveness. China is trying devaluation of currency for competitiveness when
full-employment and higher wages are working against it...
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