Economists think that deflation or lower prices make
people delay spending which is against the sales logic that lower prices would
help clear the market… During a sale or low price period the seller is expected
to sell more. That is equivalent to say that higher prices or their expectation
in the future would decrease demand and it might also increase savings which is
against the spending reason. Higher inflation or inflation expectations in the future
could also make people spend less, purchasing power goes down, number of goods
and services relative to the money-quantity or amount in the hand goes down,
and they also save more for the future. Economists say that the relative comparison
between two nominal variables makes a real variable. Inflation hurts demand is
very simple to understand when it can reduce demand by increasing the
price-level. Simply, we know that lower prices increase demand and higher price
reduce it (Tobin) which is true for both, the domestic economy and the external
economy. Lower prices make you competitive in the market. Moreover, Pigou has
also put his theory in a similar way that lower prices would increase
real-wages thereby increasing demand. Ordinary people talk about nominal
variables but an economist likes to look at the real picture, real-wages, real
interest-rate, real-prices of assets, real GDP and so on, i.e., inflation
adjusted values of variables. The central banks are trying to reduce unemployment
by cutting on real wages, external devaluation to increase exports, and real
interest rate through inflation to make businesses and investors spend more in
order to clear the market but inflation targeting has also failed to increase
domestic demand by reducing real wages and income to increase external demand at
the expanse of the former at a time of global headwinds and slow recovery in
the US. Inflation-targeting by the central-banks has reduced domestic demand by
lowering real wage expectations and also increase savings, in the face of
higher inflation, for the future.
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