Sunday, June 5, 2016

Lower real-wages lead to lower demand and growth...

All the countries are trying to increase their per capita income and living-standard according to the increase in productivity while maintaining their competitiveness with innovations because labour is relatively scarcer which might restrict the economy’s capacity absorb capital without increasing wages and the general price-level, as found in the general quantity theory of money.


Productivity is measured by output per labor (Y/L) and output per capital (Y/K). If these increase over time, we can say that productivity has increased and vice-versa. Productivity can be measured. We need productivity growth-rate to decide growth of returns to factors of production. We are here talking about productivity that increases supply capacity to sell more at lower prices. In the market there is a competition to sell at low price. A direct factor that drives productivity is knowledge or innovation.


More money-supply has reduced the cost of capital with low wages increasing supply despite of low demand which has lowered the general price-level and interest rates pushing the economy at the zero lower bound or liquidity-trap for a longer period. At the zero lower bound cash hoarding increases, not necessarily in banks, because the value of money goes up in the face of lower prices, moreover everybody expects higher inflation in the future because it is the our basic observation that prices increase with time and the will to hold unlimited money also increase savings.


The zero lower bound also trims the possibility of increasing investment and employment by reducing the borrowing cost or nominal interest rate, but the central banks are trying to reduce real interest rate and wages with inflation to incentivize the supply-side and profits which would also increase the relative international competitiveness to survive in the market-place.


A higher current-account-deficit (CAD) in the most of the developed -world means you have to devalue, either by cutting on nominal wages, interest-rate and prices (internal-devaluation) or by cutting real wages, interest-rate and prices (external-devaluation) by increasing inflation. In internal devaluation money-supply is tightened to lower inflation, to cut down nominal wages and interest rate. In external, money-supply is loosened to increase inflation and cut down real wages and interest-rate. But, we have evidences of downward-nominal-wage-and-price-rigidity after a point. In most of the developed world there has been a cut on real-wages despite increasing productivity. There has been a real-wages and productivity gap since few decades. 




Nonetheless, when real wages are going down demand too is likely to remain subdued resulting in lower growth rate. But, if, we pay equal to the marginal-product or productivity, there would be no inequality-issue. Economists favour reward to factors of production according to their product which is the purpose of Economics (explaining income-distribution). It is among the stylized-facts that share of labor and capital should be equal in GDP and real-wages would rise in the long-run. Labor-saving technological progress and higher productivity may be the reason for higher capitalists’ profits, but real-wages-productivity-gap is observable in the charts.



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