Saturday, July 1, 2017

GST could be dis-inflationary...






The Goods & Services Tax (GST) has been rolled out from 1st of July 2017 in order to make the previous cumbersome indirect tax regime less complex, while replacing the bunch of taxes with a single GST.

However, to cover a wide range of goods and services we have four rates of 5%, 12%, 18%, and 28%, instead of a single rate, and 0% tax on the food items which might lower food inflation and inflation expectations and that is likely to boost demand of food and food products in the economy which would be a plus for the food-industry and employment and growth.

 Lower inflation and inflation expectation and interest rate and interest rate expectations would help strengthen growth.

Improved flow of goods and services across all the states would also increase supply and lower the price-level.

Taxes are often passed to the consumers which is called profiteering for which the government has made provisions for anti-profiteering rules to reduce the incidence of taxes on the consumers to not to stroke consumer demand negatively.

Nonetheless, taxes should be neutral in the sense that they should not affect either demand or supply so that growth and growth expectations are not disrupted, but taxes are an effective tool to incentivize or disincentivize demand and supply.

Lower inflation and inflation expectations due to better supply or flow of goods and services could increases interest rate cut and rate cut expectation to improve growth and growth expectations…

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