Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Expectations (about, Bitcoin, too)...




Try to form positive expectations based on adaptive estimates or expectations data with right centives... It is still not reasonable to look ahead more than a quarter which might be possibly turn the economy due to rise in domestic and external demand, especially exports and long run is always good because we respond to the uncertainty by the right policies and with the right data (information symmetry) and expectations, help us be proactive... Nonetheless, a surplus CAD might be achieved due to increase in real wages/incomes/profits leading to increase in domestic (G&S) exchange rate for currency and external (X's) demand due to higher exchange incomes, more domestic currency for external public imports, through lower domestic inflation and competitiveness by LOWER CAPITAL COST, when wages/incomes/profits are sticky in the short run... Exports respond faster on increase in exchange rate and rate cuts and lower borrowing cost, when wages are rigid... Even if inflation increases it would cut real wages increasing competitiveness and nominal exchange rate due to higher money supply and inflation and expectations and lower real borrowing cost too, but would lose domestic demand due to lower value for money and real incomes...





The government might consider lower income tax on the lines of corporate tax which is proposed to come down to 25% from 30% a year ago in time... The role of Government has had been conservative in increasing spending... also due to higher public debt and bad timing... Did Barack Obama spend 1 trllion dollar coin (?) back, he had not lost the election... Donald Trump is repeating... This time the Fed too... is in verse mode... Inflation targeting did no provide too much space to the price level to create demand and growth... it limited income to rise... Demand for consumer debt, especially for home, is also important... But, sub prime loans must be curbed... real estate creates alot of unskilled employment and demand... Tax cuts should be transmitted to lower products prices which would increase real wages incomes profits and savings and investment and expectations leading to higher real domestic demand and external demand (exports/imports) due to internal devaluation... other things remaining constant, lower inflation would increase real wages, real interest rate and real exchange rate, and, real effective wages, real effective interest rate and real effective exchange rate, and, also, expectations... leading to higher incomes, interest income and exchange rate, too, both, domestic and external, and expectations... To higher demand and growth and expectations... Curbs on immigration… lower labour supply would increase wage cost and price level or inflation and expectations to lower demand and growth and expectations... Through lower value of money... Capital would own less labour...





If you've money buy Bitcoin more at 5% dips... to reduce average cost... bitcoin is used where others do'not work... But, be true to use wealth to increase health, not just your financial health... and crime... It is now listed on many important exchanges...



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"Everybody is worried about rate cuts and nobody for lower interest rates on savings, when all save and few borrow..."

Growth is sacrificed when the value of the money is sacrificed because spending goes down due to inflation, and people buy less due to high ...