Try to form positive
expectations based on adaptive estimates or expectations data with right
centives... It is still not reasonable to look ahead more than a quarter which
might be possibly turn the economy due to rise in domestic and external demand,
especially exports and long run is always good because we respond to the
uncertainty by the right policies and with the right data (information
symmetry) and expectations, help us be proactive... Nonetheless, a surplus CAD
might be achieved due to increase in real wages/incomes/profits leading to
increase in domestic (G&S) exchange rate for currency and external
(X's) demand due to higher exchange incomes, more domestic currency for
external public imports, through lower domestic inflation and competitiveness
by LOWER CAPITAL COST, when wages/incomes/profits are sticky in the short
run... Exports respond faster on increase in exchange rate and rate cuts and
lower borrowing cost, when wages are rigid... Even if inflation increases it
would cut real wages increasing competitiveness and nominal exchange rate due
to higher money supply and inflation and expectations and lower real borrowing
cost too, but would lose domestic demand due to lower value for money and real
incomes...
The government might
consider lower income tax on the lines of corporate tax which is proposed to
come down to 25% from 30% a year ago in time... The role of Government has had
been conservative in increasing spending... also due to higher public debt and
bad timing... Did Barack Obama spend 1 trllion dollar coin (?) back, he had not
lost the election... Donald Trump is repeating... This time the Fed too... is
in verse mode... Inflation targeting did no provide too much space to the price
level to create demand and growth... it limited income to rise... Demand for
consumer debt, especially for home, is also important... But, sub prime loans
must be curbed... real estate creates alot of unskilled employment and
demand... Tax cuts should be transmitted to lower products prices which would
increase real wages incomes profits and savings and investment and expectations
leading to higher real domestic demand and external demand (exports/imports)
due to internal devaluation... other things remaining constant, lower inflation
would increase real wages, real interest rate and real exchange rate, and, real
effective wages, real effective interest rate and real effective exchange rate,
and, also, expectations... leading to higher incomes, interest income and
exchange rate, too, both, domestic and external, and expectations... To higher
demand and growth and expectations... Curbs on immigration… lower labour supply
would increase wage cost and price level or inflation and expectations to lower
demand and growth and expectations... Through lower value of money... Capital
would own less labour...
If you've money buy
Bitcoin more at 5% dips... to reduce average cost... bitcoin is used where
others do'not work... But, be true to use wealth to increase health, not just
your financial health... and crime... It is now listed on many important
exchanges...
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