Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Commodity-Stocks and Interest Rates...




If we could susidise during high prices or increase supply, it would help contain wage cost and interest cost means more competitiveness.... it could also help earn profits unless the market overexpects... knife edge or the problem of over expectation... is also experienced in the stock market... Over supply and over demand are frequent when stock prices touch short term lowest or when the company wants to borrow more at lower prices after the quarterly data, it supplies more shares and demand increases because of consistent performance and higher expectations, too... And, when demand for shares increases it increases stock prices, above and more than the high price of the day... bigger gap between daily higher price and low price target means it is time to buy... higher daily prices increases higher daily target...
But, buy a credible and consistent stock with higher expectations….





People in share market, mainly, invest over less than 3 months horizon... when quarterly results come... However, there could be other styles of investing, but it is profitable to buy a share at lower prices and sell high, and, could again buy more when prices fall more than 10%, of the same consistent shares with higher price expectations... Tax on LTCG won’t affect day trading and people investing for less than a year........., 



By tightening, the central banks forget, that they are tightening credit and supply and also lower demand, to lower growth and expectations... which would increase inflation through higher borrowing cost, afterall... The normal argument given in its favour that it would reduce employment and demand which is also contradictory because during high inflation you need higher wages to keep inflation adjusted wages, intact... But, higher interest rate reduces investment, increases unemployment, and reduces production and supply which increases prices and decreases real wages buildup and that would hurt the real economy or employment and demand and growth and expectations... And, that also makes the economy lose supply and employment (which means demand) too... How reducing supply could help during high inflation? Nonetheless, it could help increase unemployment and reduce labour bargaining power and reduce wage demand which might lower price level... But, think of a situation where unemployment increases, leading to lower demand, and then supply also goes down, which means first prices would go down and then it would increase due to lower supply, making no real difference in the economic variables and parameters... they would first fall and then increase… would it make any difference in the economic handling… it would make no results… actually……..,



Paul Krugman always says that debt in own currency is not that much risk (for which the central banks could increase real money supply or higher inflation adjusted money supply) for demand and growth and expectations......




Fiscal slippage requires lower interest cost payment... Higher oil prices also need higher investment at lower borrowing cost... There is no matter in the argument........,



OTHERTHINGS REMAINING CONSTANT.... LOWER BORROWING COST WOULD REDUCE COST INFLATION AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS LEADING TO HIGHER SPENDING, SUPPLY AND DEMAND, BOTH.... MOREOVER, CONSUMPTION, DUE TO LOWER PRICES AND HIGHER, REAL WAGES AND EXPECTATIONS AND SAVINGS, DUE TO THE SAME HIGHER REAL WAGES [ AND EXPECTATIONS] AND HIGHER REAL INTEREST RATE AND EXPECTATIONS AND LOWER NOMINAL INTEREST RATES AND EXPECTATIONS WHICH MAY INCREASE INVESTMENT AND EMPLOYMENT AND GROWTH, AND EXPECTATIONS... AND, VICE VERSA... MOREOVER, HIGHER DOMESTIC COMMODITY-CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE AND EXPECTATIONS WOULD ALSO INCREASE IMPORTS/EXPORTS AND EXPECTATIONS LEADING TO HIGHER DOMESTIC AND EXTERNAL INVESTMENT EMPLOYMENT AND GROWTH AND EXPECTATIONS... HIGHER VALUE FOR MONEY OR LOWER INFLATION OR PRICES AND FULL EMPLOYMENT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER REAL WAGES/INCOMES/SALARIES AND PROFITS... AND FURTHER TO MORE SPENDING AND GROWTH AND EXPECTATIONS.........,



The US economy has already has a real wages and productivity gap since 1970s... then what is the use of new productivity and demand... How would you fill the gap... who will...?



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