Thursday, February 8, 2018

PAD/h lo, kaam aayega....



Would this not increase demand in construction, which is a unskilled labour intensive and increase much demand that directly add's to inflation...


However, even this only may increase inflation if we have crossed full employment which is not the case........,


The evidence from the US suggest that prices increase very slow if there is unemployment in the economy... prices expectations have failed to materialize, even with negative real interest rates...


Nonetheless, wage demand has increased, that is still less sharp...


But, supply side is further gotten strong which lower borrowing cost which has further lessen pressure on other prices and cost of capital expectations...



Inflation targeting would not let supply increase beyond price limit, in INDIA, it is 4 %, in the US 2 %,.........


Imagine if you were spending 10 % and now, you pay 11 % it is only 10 %.... In the US and INDIA inflation targets are two low...


Prices in the US are allowed to go up 10.2 % or 102 (index wise) and in INDIA 10.4 0r 104...


Higher prices increase supply and demand, both, the Central Banks should target higher real incomes 10 % or 8% when prices are low....


It would increase labour skills and productivity leading to higher real wages... Complete automation is not possible, therefore, but, skills are important...


Equality in the Economy through effective real income distribution and jobs for the young and expertise of the old is a sine-quo-nan...



The World is worried about tightening and higher bond yields and less investment when fundamentals tell that capital is not scarce or actually no capital cost in a capital rich country like the US....


Rent on capital is a rent on debt fuelled demand and growth and expectations........., The whole business community is run on debt...



Equity is profitable when you buy low and sell high and again buy at lower 10%.... and sell again.... buy.........,


Stock price rise and fall, take full advantage of that...


Otherwise, bonds and FDs are better if you donot want to work harder...


But, ofcourse, stocks might double money in two years, easily....



Bond market is worried about tightening and lower bond prices... but, the evidence suggest that interest rates might go to around zero, as the Western countries feel....



People in share market, mainly, invest over less than 3 months horizon... when quarterly results come...


However, there could be other styles of investing, but it is profitable to buy a share at lower prices and sell high, and, could again buy more when prices fall more than 10%, of the same consistent shares with higher price expectations...


Tax on LTCG won’t affect day trading and people investing for less than a year.........,


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