The capital and labour
are the two important factors of production which add to the cost of production
and prices, the cost is an important determinant of productivity and
competitiveness in the terms of demand and supply, both, and innovation may
also increase these two. The demand and supply competitiveness increase when
the ability of firms to produce and sell increase and the ability of people to
demand also increases, otherthings remaining constant. A lower cost and price
increase competitiveness and productivity and a higher cost and price would
decrease competitiveness and productivity because it might reduce supply and
demand and prices employment and demand further. In short,
to increase competitiveness and productivity it is important to reduce cost of
production, capital and labour costs are managed by the central bank through
interest rate to incentivize or disincentivize businesses while following the
objective of full employment and price stability. However, the price of labour
or wages are determined by the demand and supply of labour in the economy and
are indirectly managed, we do not have any institution to decide wages in the
labour market, the central bank indirectly manages demand and employment and
wages through the borrowing cost. The central bank manages demand and supply,
both, through the borrowing cost, therefore it is important to keep the
borrowing cost low to achieve the objective of price stability and full
employment, borrowing cost too add to the cost of the economy and prices which
could be lowered to increase demand and supply, both, different names of the
same economic activity. When the borrowing cost is lowered it increases
employment which increases supply by increasing production and also increase
demand by increasing employment and wages, therefore it is not plausible to
view demand and supply as separate from each other as both are functions of the
money supply and the borrowing cost. Employment is important for demand and
supply which determines the price level, higher employment or full employment
means full demand and supply and stable prices and vice versa. The central bank
usually overlooks this aspect when increasing the borrowing cost, it views that
it is controlling demand to tame prices, but forgets that it would also reduce
supply and employment and demand, both. Moreover, it misses to increase supply
which has a positive correlation with lower borrowing cost and prices and
demand. Lower borrowing cost and prices could help increase the demand and
supply upto full employment after which lower borrowing cost would also help imports
and contain the prices. Notwithstanding, if the central bank tries to contain
either demand and/or supply through the borrowing cost it would affect businesses
negatively with swings in the trade cycles, but if the central banks try to
adjust the borrowing cost low and stable it would help sustain demand and
supply at full employment. Lower borrowing cost and prices would help increase
employment, (real) wages and savings and investment. The central banks are waiting
for wage inflation after full employment because relative prices due to the
lower borrowing cost compared to wages would go down. By keeping the borrowing
cost low the banks might allow real wages and demand to go up which may help
contain demand, supply, employment and prices. The lower borrowing cost could
help increase competitiveness if wages are increasing. History has seen less
periods of wage inflation than commodity inflation. Paul Krugman is largely
true when he says that the central banks are confronted with a novel situation
when they are expecting wage inflation instead of commodity inflation like oil
price inflation in the past. No central banks in the past have tightened
explicitly due to wage inflation which could be good for demand and supply.
Higher wages could increase the supply of labour and demand, but how fast that
is a question. Higher wages could increase the population rate of growth or
immigration or just imports which is also favourable for domestic and global
growth and demand.
Friday, May 25, 2018
Thursday, May 17, 2018
Lower prices increase competitiveness, demand and supply, both...
Normally, the
economists view higher prices and inflation and expectations to cut real
interest rate, real wages and real exchange rate and expectations to make the
economy competitive domestically and externally or globally in order to
incentivize demand and supply, and, investment and employment, and expectations
to achieve the equilibrium, or NAIRU – the non accelerating inflation rate of
unemployment, of full employment growth rate and expectations. But, they fail
to recognize that inflation reduces real spending and savings and investment
and employment and expectations while increasing the nominal interest rate,
nominal wages and the nominal exchange rate which makes the economy lose
competitiveness and demand and supply, however exports may increase through
higher exchange rate. They think that higher prices would incentivize the
supply side to increase employment and demand, but when prices increase, they
negatively affect demand and spending first and then lower savings and
investment and employment and expectations which would lower growth and expectations.
Generally, people expect that price of everything increase in the long run so
they need higher incomes and savings to achieve the desired standard of living.
Nonetheless, if people expect higher prices in the future they might rush to
buy which could further increase demand and prices, inverse of the expectation
that lower prices would delay spending and it would again lower the prices.
This has been observed by the Knife Edge Problem due to expectations; lower
growth and price expectations are cumulative in effect and also produce trade
cycles and vice versa. The higher prices to increase investment and supply
first reduce demand which might set the precedent for lower prices because
supply would outpace demand due to lower real wages despite employment, higher
prices cut real wages and demand as experienced by the developed countries,
inflation and lower real wages have reduced demand relative to supply, even
though investment and employment has increased which has lowered price and
growth expectations.
Notwithstanding, if we
assume lower prices it would increase real interest rate, real wages and the
exchange rate which would increase demand and spending and savings and
investment and supply and expectations.
Economists think that
lower real wages, real interest rate and exchange rate incentivize supply, but they
reduce domestic demand and imports, but increases exports which also depend on
the external demand and global growth and are sometimes uncertain. Nevertheless,
higher real wages, real interest rate
and real exchange rate increase domestic demand, imports and exports due to
higher spending and savings and investment to achieve full employment, lower
prices would also help contain cost and increase competitiveness and supply.
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