The US has again
imposed tariff on the Chinese exports which has unleashed a fresh wave of
protectionism, also in the form of retaliatory tariffs, and uncertainty in the
global trade scene and economic growth which might increase the cost of living
in countries by reducing real wages and incomes and increasing real cost to the
economy in the case of raw material and intermediate goods and services.
In short, protectionism
and tariffs are self defeating when it comes to the cost of the economy and
that reduces competitiveness and demand.
Moreover, trade is
viewed as an engine to reduce unemployment in the economy which is justifiable
to an extent as an excuse for the protectionism, but after full employment
tariffs would increase the cost for the economy increasing prices and inflation
which reduce real wages and demand and growth and when it is countered by retaliatory
tariffs the same happens in the trading partners’ economy, ie higher prices and
lower real wages and demand.
By levying tariff we
tax domestic demand for imports which increases domestic prices of the same
goods too if we are near full employment.
The timing for such a
move is not opportune and the trading partners, those are retaliating, are repeating the same mistake if they are around full employment, tariffs would
lower domestic real wages and demand and growth.
The question is why
Trump wants the economy to lose competitiveness by imposing tariff on the
domestic demand.... it would reduce real wages... but, would also increase
interest rates...?
He might otherwise try
to incentivize exports... the corporate tax cuts if passed on to prices would
increase real wages and real exchange rate too and demand, imports, too... it
would also add to the trading partners economy... higher real interest rates
would also increase savings and investment and stable interest rates....
Trump is losing edge
because of lower real wages and incomes, but might gain from tax cuts if passed
on to the goods and services the economy produces... it could boost real
incomes...
Trump might try to
increase (domestic) competitiveness... instead of protection from foreign (competitiveness)…
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