Lower and stable oil
prices, pause in the tightening cycle in the US and, now, lower interest rate
and expectations in INDIA have the ability to affect the investment sentiment
positively among domestic and foreign subjects amid few obstacles like expectations
of slowdown in China and Europe and the Brexit…
However, this could be
the right time to increase exposure to stocks and debt since they look more
attractive after a healthy correction from value perspective after abated rate
hike expectations in the US and other markets and measures to keep-off the
trade war disruptions, but still in doldrums…
Nonetheless, economic
policies are like waves that magnify its effects like rate hikes and rate cuts
through prices by the central banks, for instance inflation tends to increase
inflation and unemployment due to hike in the borrowing cost and expectations
and deflation tends to increase deflation and unemployment because of lower
borrowing cost and expectations…
Therefore, stable
prices, movement in narrow bands, and interest rate and expectations like the
natural or neutral rate theory around full employment could help stabilize
prices and investment and growth and expectations.
There is little basis
to support no jobs claims in INDIA... at least there is no mass resentment...
We have a vast unorganised sector without any data...
There is huge service
sector in towns and villages and even in cities that earn daily wages and have
no EPF demand where people are ready to work at cheap wages...
INDIA''s low productive
jobs and wages and demand and higher prices are very big problems...
The best thing the govt
could promise youth is education and skills and jobs and increase productivity
of the economy according to industry demand managing demand and supply of jobs
better...
INDIA''s huge workforce
is its biggest asset and a liability, too... if the supply and demand of the CS’
and CAs are controlled to help income than why not for other skills... It would also help the rural distress... which
needs skills for employment...
Fiscal deficit has been
a source of inflation and inflation expectations and higher interest rate and
expectations and low investment, also due to depreciation and expectations...
Notwithstanding, spend
on health, education and skills would increase productivity and competitiveness
and demand and supply and growth and expectations...
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