Friday, February 8, 2019

Some abated risks...





Lower and stable oil prices, pause in the tightening cycle in the US and, now, lower interest rate and expectations in INDIA have the ability to affect the investment sentiment positively among domestic and foreign subjects amid few obstacles like expectations of slowdown in China and Europe and the Brexit…


However, this could be the right time to increase exposure to stocks and debt since they look more attractive after a healthy correction from value perspective after abated rate hike expectations in the US and other markets and measures to keep-off the trade war disruptions, but still in doldrums…


Nonetheless, economic policies are like waves that magnify its effects like rate hikes and rate cuts through prices by the central banks, for instance inflation tends to increase inflation and unemployment due to hike in the borrowing cost and expectations and deflation tends to increase deflation and unemployment because of lower borrowing cost and expectations…


Therefore, stable prices, movement in narrow bands, and interest rate and expectations like the natural or neutral rate theory around full employment could help stabilize prices and investment and growth and expectations.    


There is little basis to support no jobs claims in INDIA... at least there is no mass resentment... We have a vast unorganised sector without any data...


There is huge service sector in towns and villages and even in cities that earn daily wages and have no EPF demand where people are ready to work at cheap wages...


INDIA''s low productive jobs and wages and demand and higher prices are very big problems...


The best thing the govt could promise youth is education and skills and jobs and increase productivity of the economy according to industry demand managing demand and supply of jobs better...


INDIA''s huge workforce is its biggest asset and a liability, too... if the supply and demand of the CS’ and CAs are controlled to help income than why not for other skills...  It would also help the rural distress... which needs skills for employment...


Fiscal deficit has been a source of inflation and inflation expectations and higher interest rate and expectations and low investment, also due to depreciation and expectations...


Notwithstanding, spend on health, education and skills would increase productivity and competitiveness and demand and supply and growth and expectations...




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