Growth has increased on yoy base year when the economy grew 8%, this year’s growth increased 4.5%, over the last year same quarter when the economy was away slowdown so how could there be slowdown, now...
The economy has slowed compared to the last two quarter, but the economy has increased over the last year, so growth would add, the economy has increased last year’s 8% and 5% this year’s compared to last year if we use same base year to calculate real GDP growth rate...
September quarter is always slow compared to other three quarters... December shows improvement, followed by March and June... June quarter is always the best...
INDIA''s economy has done better than the stock market... Economy's has grown (real terms) 16% and the stock markets 13% per-annum in the last 8 years since 2011-12 base...
INDIA's food inflation is responsible for the growth cycles due to flood and also lack of irrigation facilities... when inflation increases it increases inflation and interest rate expectations which delays investment decisions and slows the cycle...
Any price rise could be transmitted to the general price level through interest rate, wages, and exchange, depreciation in the nominal exchange rate due to higher inflation and expectations could make imports costly...
The policy makers must avoid uncertainty or unforseen demand and supply shocks or grey rhino and black swan events from the expected growth path of the economy, and seriously try or commitment to achieve the projected growth rate to increase investment/employment and demand/supply in case of adverse shocks...
Similarly, the RBI may reduce uncertainty around interest rates, by remaining accommodative and tolerate higher inflation upto 6% to increase growth.... Achieving the inflation target is also an important part of the policy b’coz it is an indicator of demand... Higher inflation or price expectations at the target may help increase demand and spending and growth...
If INDIA could remove risk associated with food and oil inflation it could lower inflation and increase competitiveness, it would increase real disposable income and it would also increase real interest rate saving and investment, wages are consumed and profits are saved and invested... when everybody would spend it increases demand and supply... when both would increase prices could remain stable...
Lower taxes are also a form of fiscal spending... Rs 100 trillion commitment to spend is also ambitious...
Only INDIA's growth rate has gone down, but growth is still higher than the previous year same quarter...
INDIA has grown more than 200% in the last 7 yrs in GDP at constant price terms after 2012... In 5yrs economy will more than double to $5 trillion... Don't believe anybody, believe the data...
Only growth rate has gone down, growth has increased yoy GDP has grown, GDP at constant prices has increased 16% on the 2012 base year in real terms... The growth is down in cyclical or seasonal terms due to flood and lack of irrigation which INDIA faces every year...
Chidambaram Sir must tell the public that why we need cash when everybody has a bank account and mobile/internet... It increases the cost of banks... Moreover, all the money in banks would increase money supply and help increase rate cut transmission...
RBI Guv commentary showed that there is less space for rate cuts going forward keeping inflation in mind that has already cut real interest ahead the RBI meet by more the rate cut expected by the RBI...
The commentary was mature and expected to improve growth going forward (green shoots and revival in agriculture due to higher food prices too)... The RBI tried to stabilise expectations and promised to further strengthen growth through an accommodative stance, the RBI monetary policy would help the markets stabilise and gain ground before marching fore...
RBI must not discriminate between PSBs, CBs, NBFCs and Cooperative banks because there is no restriction on inter-banks inter-NBFC liquidity afterall it's all people money... though shadow banks must be properly regulated, the lesson we have learnt from US and China...
To much frequent changes in the base year could make the historical growth comparison impossible and redundant.. It would be difficult to compare growth pre and post the base year... To capture price changes we already use deflator to nominal GDP to arrive at the real GDP growth and growth rate... Changing base year in a sense is debasing of the growth rate...
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