There is no Gov that is deliberately wrong 'coz it reduces the chances of re-election... Rajan may provide solutions to increase growth, he had been an insider in the Gov... It was Rajan's own advice to increase investment in infra, const and real estate where NPAs are highest... back in 2008...
Lower income tax would boost indirect tax collection, if people increase spending.. Real balances with the public would also increase due to lower GST and corporate taxes which may further increase spending and indirect tax revenue...
Higher disposable income could increase spending and indirect tax collection and reveue... Moreover, the Gov may also try boost real incomes by including the oil in the GST list of highest tax slab... Oil is scarce therefore it is rational to put it into highest GST tax rate to control demand.... Currently tax on oil is 100% of the price...
Daily consumption has not gone down, including conveyance, because it cannot that is why cpi has gone up, but consumption of manufactured products has gone down that is why core-cpi is mute... If the price of daily consumption goes down it could increase real cash with the public and demand for manufactured goods...
In a country where there is a large number of poor people, not everybody is fortunate and can afford a living without employment and earning... 6.1% unemployment rate is not that high in a slowdown, just above the natural rate of unemployment... Unorganised sectors create more employment in INDIA than the organised sectors... Nonetheless, there is a wage and demand problem...
Growth in September, qoq 2019 has gone down compared to the June quarter which was higher than the March qoq, preceeded by a growing December and September quarters 2018 and has increased over the same quarter last year, yoy, we have produced more on yoy basis...
Gross fixed Capital Formation is continuously goingup with temporary short and small blips...
If Gov, banks and industry pass on the lower oil prices, rate cuts and corporate tax cuts and GST, respectively, to consumers it would increase real wages and incomes and demand and spending... but, they are just holding on price and demand and growth transmission and investment in the expectation that growth would revive then they would initiate... they could themselves revive investment and growth... they may miss growth when inflation and cost are low... As soon as they pass on benefits of excess capacity and higher productivity to the consumers it could increase demand and growth...
INDIA is growing 4% qoq and 16% annually... According to the latest chain based method if last year’s growth rate was 8% and this year’s growth is 5%.... then the growth rate would be -3 upon 8 multiplied by 100 equals -37.5%... compared to same q last year…
As far as -37% less growth than the last year same q is concerned it shows that growth rate is less than the previous yearonyear 100% when the growth rate was 8%, but the growth rate has increased 62.5% of the yoy 8% growth rate... Therefore, this year's growth on September q last year would be 5%... which has been added yoy and qoq... though lower qoq... 5% growth is the just one quarter's growth and when we add we arrive around 20% nominal growth and 16% real annual growth rate...
INDIA is growing 4% qoq and 16% annually or yoy... According to the latest chain based method if last years growth in GDP at constant prices was 34139 inr billion and this years growth is 35851 inr billion.... then the growth rate would be again 4-5% qoq which means every quarter and not compared to previous quarter...
Analysts are expecting a 5.5% growth for the next year… There are 4 quarters in 1 year, if the average growth is 5.5% then the 4 quarter growth might be 4%,5%,6%,7% or 7%,5%,4%,6% or 5%,4%,7%,6%.........
Growth has just gone down in the past two quarters... It is a short period of slowdown and nothing like recession... Inflation, especially core-CPI, but also CPI to an extant ,and growth are in a seasonal/cyclical slowdown... Floods and drought upset prices every year... which also affect rural demand when 70% people live in villages and are unproductively engaged in agriculture... The FM must comeup with a package for the rural sector as 60% of the population is seasonally occupied by the agriculture...
Stock screener could be a game changer the way investors view stock market investment... It is lesss time taking. now... and more predictable than before... stock prices…
Investors must choose stocks with P/B ratio at 2-3 with consistent growth and returns... Moreover, SIP or STP style is good, but for high returns investors must buy more at 10% or more correction, they must be mentally prepared... As share price go down they need less and less money to buy more stocks... which could maximise returns...
Bonds price-in yields if the market expects rate cut... The recent surge in bond yields are close to the amount of rate cut expectations which show correction in expectations...
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