Green-Shoots are Visible...

The PMI has recorded expansion in the economic activity... People also hold investment due to closing of the Financial Year and the Budget.... which would resume after those events... FM and RBI couldn't be more supportive and stimulative... If the greenshoots are not visible then we are also not going down, the economy has been more stable... Lower interest rate and higher fiscal deficit would increase the Public Spending and income multiplier would work... Lower gst and corp-tax would also help increase real wages and income and demand and spending and growth... Higher income expectations could boost demand, spending and prices and growth...

Investment was put on hold due to the Budget... INDIA is in a cyclical demand slowdown... which happens every year... Food and vegetables have been more speculative due to drought, in some parts and floods in some other... People speculate on monsoon and food prices which is also manipulative sometimes... ie expectations around prices play an important role in investment in stocks and supply... it happens every year... Food and fuel have a significant effect on inflation 'coz they are key elements of the consumption basket of the poor and real incomes and demand... core inflation also depend on CPI because of wage demand and inflation.... Nonetheless, lower demand could lower the ability to pass on price increase to consumers... Higher incomes and demand could increase core CPI or or price expectations... and increase spending and growth... Lower investment could be attributed to the Budget...

Lose Regulation of the shadow banks and the NBFCs have been the source of systematic risk and NPAs... we have evidence of risky lending by shadow banks in the US and China... Better regulation (like banks) could mitigate that risk, since banks are already lending big money to NBFCs... In INDIA NBFCs have lend on a large scale when the PSBs were holding credit growth due to the stressed assets... The RBI must make crop insurance and hedge investment necessary for loans... That would make the investments safe....

The Govt has more than $ 500 billion in the foreign exchange reserves with the RBI which is lying idle/passive... INDIA's CAD is around $ 70 bllion and the reserve is enough for 6 months imports... The reserve could also help increase investment in skills and productive areas... $ 500 billion is 35 lkn crore rupees... More supply of dollar could lower it and make the rupee strong and oil cheap which could also increase competitiveness of the Economy... The Gov and RBI should try to bring rupee denominated bonds get indexed in foreign indices...

The skills gap has constrained the productivity and production and wages and incomes and demand and growth in UP... With biggest land area UPs growth rate is lackluster compared to other States like Gujarat... Industrialisation could further improve jobs situation... UP has the potential to become a leader in Agro-processing and attract FDI in under-penetrated areas for job creation...

INDIA's Debt-GDP ratio 69% is low compared to the developed and is close to Germany's one of the best among... and lower than Japan, US and UK... INDIA’s debt is 1,294 billion usd and of US is 23.25 trillion usd.....

The Center and State fiscal deficit combined doesn't give the right picture... Decentralisation and devolution of more funds to State and alternate sources of revenue, like fuel, has kept States' fiscal deficit in check... The need really is to ask states to increase spending to restore recovery... States fiscal deficit is 2.5% and Center's is 3.8%... States could still increase spending....

Inflation (core) is stable, when gov increases spending it increases demand and prices, like UPA2... Bonds yields and lower interest rate... have also been stable... Monsoon and Oil pose greater risk to inflation and interest rate expectations.... and demand/spending and growth and expectations...

Manmohan Singh's comment spread pessimism and could could hurt business expectations and reinforce low growth (only)... He shall stop giving forward guidance to the investors... that may hurt the Economy.... Monmohan Singh's counseling of the investors is not right... Inflation in INDIA is running above the target... Does it signify slowdown, even core-CPI...? Slowdown means deflation or a sustained period of low demand and prices.... Is it all observed...

Everybody knows that the Budget wanted to crowd-in the Private investment.... The theme was ADC- Aspiration, Development and Care...

Demo was not supported by Urjit Patel... MPC continued a hawkish stance even when inflation was way below the target...

This is time domestic players increase business by lowering prices and increase demand and prices and expectations... when everybody would spend it would increase price expectations...

At one place Covid-19 would reduce demand and prices China and higher price in other countries (importing countries).... Spending would increase in other countries 'coz of higher price expectations and less spending in China due to lower price expectations... This is an adaptive expectations model, which could reduce CAS in China and also reduce CAD in other countries... Lower price expectations would delay spending in China and higher price expectation could increase demand and spending and growth in other countries... Expectations play an important role in spending, especially the investment spending, the speculative demand (with savings) which then also creates employment and demand... In this process both demand and supply increase upto full employment... China hit that wall and wages have not remained competitive both, nominal and real coz of full employment... Stimuli could help balance growth... Recovery in China is also important to increase supply and contain or stabilise prices and expectations and spending globally...

Market Capitalisation is at all time low and may point recovery soon... They (Mutual Funds) could if you invest in daily SIPs... It would give you better cost averaging returns... Investors must chase the bottom of the stock price of the good PE companies by buying more on significant dips/corrections till the gap closes to 20%... a good stock could go 20% in a day.... So it is not a big difference... and you could easily wait for good returns... this one is short run strategy.... PB ratio shows, less than three, that the current price is a good bet and PE ratio shows that the earnings and returns expectations are high... Growth ensures that the stock would be in demand... If followed this could help accumulate more stocks when they are cheap till it bounces back in less money and sell high... A good stock could easily give 50% returns in a year... or 5% per month...

If a company buysback it would benefit both the company and investors, afterall the company is the promoter and carry the majority of shares, its share price goes up to, people invest more in such companies...  The Govt has only discouraged buybacks recently... The rest would be a gain...

During the US President visit to INDIA… The analysts hope the US would help INDIA maintain its oil reserves, since it creates uncertainty for growth …. Sofar the success has been limited, US has shown little interest in exporting oil to INDIA... US has also big bio-diesel reserves which produce less pollution when blended with fuel... INDIA should try to import more bio-diesel than fuel to tackle climate change...

INDIA may try for the continuation of free trade agreement under Generalised System of Preferences -GSP - to access the US market at low cost for exports and more foreign exchange and stability... The INDIAN Economy, though, has reduced the poverty at a higher rate, but, it is still less than 4rth of the US economy and home for a large number of poor people in the population... Creating good jobs for its poor population would help bring them out of poverty....

It is clear that people having a (legal) passport and identity cannot be denied entry and citizenship... Anybody from a religious majority terrorist country must be identified... Terrorism is a menace for INDIA... It's for security of INDIAN's and to provide benefits to the poor... Opposing CAA, NRC and NPR is self-destructive... The gov's around the world are planning RFID chips to be used for security concerns... If gov brings anything like that, then, what would happen???

The question of religion doesn't arise... It is about majority and minority and the protection of their rights... INDIAN muslims are not denied citizenship anyway... and could enter INDIA only if he has a valid passport and visa

A law passed in the Parliament could only be challenged in the Court... (Not on the streets; added)... Kapil Sibal...