Friday, May 13, 2022

Higher interest rate is in the interest or for the sake of public, too...

Not long ago the economists favoured expansionary or inflationary policies, because they believed that it would stoke demand and growth, though without supply side policies response it is likely to increase inflation, which they said is likely to lower value of debt and further increase demand and could increase spending... But they forgot that inflation would lower real wages, incomes and savings and investment too... Nonetheless, we could expect the opposite outcome if they favoured gradual tight or contractionary policies which could increase savings and investment with higher real wages, incomes and profit... Wages are consumed and profits are saved and invested, therefore it is the capitalist who saves money and the increased return on savings and investment is also likely to benefit the capitalist, return on his investment increases... A gradual tight monetary policy and low inflation also increase the value of money and demand... Inflation reduces real wages, incomes and profit and savings/investment and demand and growth while lower prices are likely to increase real wages, incomes and profits and demand, too. A gradual contractionary policy is also likely to increase demand by lowering inflation and increasing real wages, incomes and profits...

The RBI has to manage spending in the economy to maintain price stability and FULL_EMPLOYMENT... The right way to increase spending is to increase the value of money and demand by lowering prices and increase real wages, incomes, profits and returns on investment... A gradual increase in the interest rate and expectations over the long run is needed to increase spending... The price of everything is going up but the price of capital -- read the interest rate -- is going down... The bond yields shall also go up in the long run to increase investment spending, though bond prices move in the opposite direction... For forward guidance the RBI shall notify the bottom and top of prices of financial assets in order to avoid uncertainty...

A gradual lower price expectation by gradual interest rate hike expectations is likely to increase supply and lower prices... A gradual rate hike expectations in the long run is likely to increase investment spending...

Stabilising or increasing spending without stoking inflation and unemployment is the aim and for that the RBI shall increase the value of money by increasing rate hike expectations in a slow manner so that lower price expectations increase supply and lower demand... reinforcing low prices... Higher interest rate on savings would also increase investment demand...

Nobody understands that interest rate hikes are not directly related to stock market investment, but it works with long lags between investment and earnings and perception and expectations about the company... If people could become millionaire and billionaire by investing in stocks of INDIAn companies then think of profits they must be earning... A 40 basis point hike in interest rate is going to do nothing to their investment plans and earnings... While investing earnings and expectations are very important, company that has consistently achieved its estimated earnings and revenue means actual earnings are equal or higher and the estimated earnings and revenue are higher for the next quarter/year...

Gradual rate hikes and expectations from the bottom could help increase investment spending and lower prices expectations could help increase supply and lower or delay demand ...

Higher interest rate is in the interest or for the sake of public, now, it would also lower business cost in a trade-off with the borrowing cost... Higher yields are good for the investors...

High price or inflation expectations could set speculative tendencies as far as investment is concerned, but higher interest rate expectations could lower earnings expectations and prices or inflation which could delay demand and increase supply... This is the time to curb such speculation...

The RBI shall lower inflation in order to make the economy competitive which is likely to increase appreciation expectations and exports... Higher or strong foreign exchange expectations could increase export demand... Strong exchange rate is also likely to lower import bill due to lower price expectations...

Rate hike by the RBI was a preemptive attempt to stop/stabilise foreign exchange outflows due to inflation and depreciation and expectations... Higher yields than the US or the arbitrage between the US and INDIA could stabilise... In the hindsight of inflation and depreciation and expectations, this rate hike seems reasonable... It could lower inflation and depreciation and expectations and could limit foreign exchange outflows from both debt and equity...

Further appreciation of the dollar is possible if the RBI demands too much dollar... Appreciation or lower reserve expectations could be self-fulfilling... INDIA owns debt in its currency and little in foreign exchange... Countries that owe debt in their own currencies do not involve the risk of default... The RBI is also the finance arm of the GOI... If it is necessary monetisation of debt by the RBI is possible...

Economic decision making often involve trade-offs... If the government reduces taxes on oil it would help increase spending and taxes elsewhere... Lower interest rates could further increase investment spending and taxes... Though, it depends upon the tax multiplier...

Vast unorganised sector like agriculture has a lot of disguised unemployment... 50% of the labourforce is seasonally employed by the agri-economy... which needs skilling to provide productive employment…

Like other markets investors could bargain buy or sell price in the market... The investors may choose or bring consensus on a single buy and sell price, highest possible it could go to sell or lowest possible it could go to buy, which is a profit maximisation outcome... Everybody would gain...

If everyone in the stock market set same sell limit order at the highest price for the day, it could soon become a reality. Everybody shall choose same price, for entry lowest and exit highest price... If this could happen everybody would gain... and would also help stabilise the markets...

The real question is that what could happen if everybody expect and set limit at the highest price according to the high price range for the day or if they expect or set limit lowest price according to the low price range for the day, or if everybody set same limit price for buy or sell... what would happen with the actual or current prices...

Everybody shall invest in index funds or mutual funds having nifty 50 and bse 30 companies, they are the top companies and investors does not need thorough research, they could take advantage of others... Investors shall buy significant correction in corrections... Investment mean three things buy low and sell high buy low sell high and buy low and sell high... Investments need timing...

Food inflation is high which could get translated in higher demand for wages that could further increase prices... Modiji shall serve INDIA first, people who have voted for him... He could be in-sensitive for the pain of the Ukrainian people and remain neutral and and show-off by that he cares for other countries people by donating vaccines and exporting wheat... Both, seems inconsistent... All are linked to the Ukrainian invasion... All countries must dislike Russia... It’s a humanitarian issue and all countries shall unfriend Russia...

Like the govt has backed off from farm laws, it has also retreated from CAA and NRC... By bulldogging illegal construction it has indulged in appeasement of its vote bank... The govt must stop illegal immigrations as it could destroy govt flagships and lower employment oppourtunities for the lower class citizens of INDIA...

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