The Trajectory to Viksit Bharat: India’s Path from Developing to Developed Economy.....

As of early 2026, India stands at a defining juncture in its economic history, having established itself as the world’s fourth-largest economy in nominal terms. While its aggregate GDP, estimated at around $4.1 trillion to $4.5 trillion, places it behind only the United States, China, and Germany, India remains a "lower-middle-income" country. The core challenge, and the ultimate goal for becoming a "developed economy" (Viksit Bharat) by 2047, lies not in aggregate size but in drastically lifting its per capita income. India’s per capita GDP is estimated at approximately $2,800–$3,000 for 2025–2026, positioning it around 136th–144th globally. This discrepancy highlights that while the nation is becoming an economic powerhouse, the average prosperity per person requires substantial, sustained growth over the next two decades.

Current Position (2025-2026) and Recent Growth

India has maintained its status as the world's fastest-growing major economy, with real GDP growth rates frequently exceeding 6.5% to 8%.

Nominal GDP Per Capita (2025-26): Estimated to be around $2,818 to $3,051.

Global Ranking: 4th largest economy (Nominal GDP), but roughly 144th in per capita terms.

Trajectory: The per capita income has more than doubled from approximately $1,000 in 2009 to over $2,000 by 2019. The current growth is driven by massive infrastructure expansion, digital public infrastructure (UPI), and a young working population.

Growth Expected and Trajectory to a Developed Economy (2030-2047)

To reach the status of a developed nation (defined generally as a high-income country by the World Bank, currently requiring a per capita GNI over $13,846), India needs to sustain high growth rates for 20-25 years.

Intermediate Goal (2030): Per capita income is projected to approach $4,000–$4,500, transitioning India into the upper-middle-income category. By this time, India is projected to be the 3rd largest economy, surpassing Japan and Germany.

Long-Term Goal (2047): To be considered a developed economy by 2047, the 100th anniversary of independence, projections indicate that India must achieve a per capita income of approximately $13,000–$18,000, and potentially as high as $26,000 in optimistic scenarios.

Growth Required: This requires a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% to 9.25% in dollar terms for the next two decades, which is significantly higher than the present trend.

Key Drivers of Growth and Structural Changes

To achieve this, the Indian economy is pivoting from a reliance on the service sector to a balanced growth model:

Manufacturing Expansion: The manufacturing sector's share of GDP is targeted to rise to 25% by 2047, up from ~17%.

Demographic Dividend: With a median age of 31, India has a significant working-age population advantage.

Infrastructure & Digitalisation: Sustained capital expenditure (CAPEX) by the government is enhancing productivity.

Formalisation: The continued formalisation of the economy, through initiatives like GST, aims to increase tax-to-GDP ratios and expand the formal workforce.

India’s path to becoming a developed economy is both plausible and challenging. While the country is on track to become the world's third-largest economy by 2028, bridging the gap from a lower-middle-income nation to a high-income nation by 2047 requires increasing the per capita GDP by more than five times the current value. The trajectory necessitates consistent,, high-digit growth in per capita income, supported by manufacturing growth, skill development, and rising female labour force participation. If these structural reforms are successfully implemented, India could transform from a developing economy into a high-income country within the next 25 years.