Monday, December 17, 2012
Sunday, December 16, 2012
Micro over Macro...
Article;
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/global-economic-turmoil-to-continue-till-2015-kaushik-basu-chief-economist-world-bank/articleshow/17643530.cms
Comment;
I
would say both market and government are irrational. We can easilyspot
the examples like the US and the Europe. In case of the USmarket
fails and in the case of Europe government fails. In one casewe have too much private debt and in the other too much govt. debt. Where is the
relief? We need to steer economies with a common man's intelligence. I
mean we need to look at micro aspects or micro economics. We do not need too much debt or may benegligible...
Remove Bottlenecks...
Article;
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indian-economy-may-beat-expectations-in-2013-goldman-sachs/articleshow/17542523.cms
Comment;
If infrastructure and supply side bottlenecks were not there
the chances are that the economy had grown with a growth rate equal to the rate
of inflation, i mean 7-7.5%. Because inflation is also an index of increase in
consumer spending even if it is under compulsion, read price-rise. The higher
(rational) the inflation target set by an economy or the actual inflation the
higher the growth rate probably it can achieve.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Take a Look at Food and Fuel Inflation...
Article;
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/inflation-hits-10-month-low-but-rate-cut-unlikely/articleshow/17620360.cms
Comment;
I disagree that the main gauge of inflation is WPI, and, it
is neither CPI nor core-inflation (manufactured products). If I had to choose
an indicator of inflation I would go for food-and-fuel-inflation because the
argument is that we need to protect the value of money poor people are getting
because their income/wages are more or less indefinite, and, depends upon a
variety of factors like season and availability of work. Poor people do not
consume all the products WPI, CPI and core-inflation take into account. Ninety
percent of their consumption basket includes food-and-fuel. Food inflation at
9.4% and fuel-inflation at 10% makes me, too, expect that key interest rate won’t
come down in the next 4-5 months…
Sunday, December 2, 2012
The Other Problems...
Arictle;
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/columnists/swaminathan-s-a-aiyar/real-and-imaginary-problems-of-electronic-cash-transfers/articleshow/17448650.cms
Comment;
Although i know the writer for a long time because he writes
very well but i think he is missing the macro economic effects – inflation and
budget deficit – of such a welfare scheme. For the past 2-3 years we are in the
realm of high inflation and high fiscal deficit. A simple rule of economics is
that whenever money supply increases, either by government or by the central
bank, it stokes inflation, then why here nobody is taking note of that thing…
Moreover, we are continuously discussing government fiscal deficit as high and
the government too is planning to bring it to a sustainable level…
i’am in no way opposing CTS but the ground realities tell a
different story; a cash strapped government and a lonely central bank fighting
with inflation… It is like telling people about something we can not deliver,
right now, but the government looks in haste. Cash transfer schemes have been
successful in other countries (like Brazil) to make a dent on poverty which
India can replicate, but with a pause, till the supply side is good enough to
take the shock demand presents. i’am sure such a scheme would necessitate a
little inflation and we have to chose we want it right now or with a time-lag.
If we go for former we will have to chose an inflation target of 10% or more,
but, if we go for latter we have to wait for some time to let the inflation
cool-down and chose an inflation of 6-7%.
No political party can dare to oppose a scheme which covers
a large population but they should endorse their own versions/variants of CTS…
Friday, November 16, 2012
RBI's Credibility...
Article; http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/the-real-problem-for-india-is-d-subbarao-shankar-sharma/articleshow/17215127.cms Comment;
Subbarao is doing what he is supposed to do as a
central banker. The RBI's credibility depends upon his actions. Price stability
and full-employment are the two macro-economic objectives of monetary and
fiscal policies. The economy on the employment front is doing fine we need
price stability to check inflationary expectation to limit the demand for
increase in income and wages economy wide to avoid the cost-push inflation...
Friday, October 19, 2012
Depreciation is good...
Article;
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/rbi-has-little-room-for-immediate-rate-cuts-morgan-stanley/articleshow/16879596.cms
Comment;
I agree Rupee will depreciate and has negative effects. But with growth at 6% and inflation at 8% i think India is having normal times. Neither too good, nor too bad. Growth is good we need to push it further. India has a poor export sector and we need to give it a push. No doubt Indian currency is very weak but that is a good thing. And, a good thing even when compared to the gains from a strong currency. With a strong currency we buy products of a foreign country and employment is created in foreign. But cheap currency gives exports an impetus which creates employment at home and increase tax base (not always). A currency depreciation is always good. Even if Indian currency depreciates further it will help the economy in the long-run. The larger the gap between the strongest currency and weakest currency the more it will take to converge to its true- value, equilibrium exchange rate. And, the longer will be the advantage of the country “of being cheap” for currency or for products. Currency depreciations have pulled out economies out of recessions. And, developed countries welcome it...
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