Monday, June 17, 2013

Inflation is Sticky...




RBI once again has disappointed the market by not improving the liquidity in any form. It is just kicking the can down the road. Here is the CPI inflation data for past 12 years and we see that CPI climbed to 10% since 2004 where it remained until 2008 and fell to 9% in 2009. And after that it is moving between 9-11% till 2013.



Keynes said that wages and prices are flexible upwards and they are rigid downwards. In the above graph we see that CPI is elevated at 10% since 2004 and has not come down below 9 % since 2009 which supports the Keynesian view that the CPI is now very sticky around 9-11%.

If we take a longer period view, say 50-60 years, then again we find that CPI inflation in INDIA has remained near 10% since 1977 as shown in the graph below;



Inflation in INDIA is a deep structural problem and the supply side hardly supports the demand scene of a billion people economy…

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