Article;
Rupee may fall further as US economy improves
Comment;
Indian currency is
depreciating because of out pour of dollars and investment from the economy
and, the central bank can not loose monetary policy since it will further
depreciate the currency. Our major concern is CAD and imported inflation
because of oil which can improve only if, either currency becomes strong, or
imports go down. But the Indian currency is depreciating and the RBI can not
cut interest rates. We are in a paradox… We can not loose monetary policy and
we too can not increase interest rates so that less money supply makes the
Indian currency strong because Indian Businesses have already stalled investment
due to high interest rates. The prompt reply of a depreciating currency is to
increase supply of dollar by the central bank, but, here again; it can not help
much since we are already short of dollars. But in this situation if the RBI
demands more dollars it will put more pressure on the rupee to depreciate and
dollar to appreciate, and, we need to increase the demand for the Indian-rupee
so that it can appreciate with the demand and go strong. We need both a strong
rupee and a good foreign currency reserve which can be achieved if we increase
demand for Indian rupee. Demand for Indian-Rupee will help us improve foreign
exchange reserves because people will buy the Indian unit with dollars to buy
Indian-exports. India needs to tie-up the demand for Indian-Rupee with the
demand for dollars. Let people buy the Indian-Currency with the dollars…
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