Friday, January 30, 2015

Do not compromise on food...


RBI last time reduced key-rates on a off date which was also a signal that it has made up his mind to pass on over the effect of low oil and low transport cost to the price structure of G&S... The government has also contributed towards low prices through fiscal consolidation commitments... Both have worked-out to take the economy to the next level... Even though the government has done little to the revenue side but by targeting its spending better through cash transfer has reduced the cost of public-distribution... Both, the RBI and the GoI was determined to bring inflation down... For instance the rationale behind a different base-year is yet remain unexplained that what did the country achieve from just a mathematical-manipulation? Both have worked a lot to reduce inflation and improve the supply side... In a country like INDIA 10% inflation is consistent with 10% growth rate... It is a supply-constrained economy... but income must also grow more than inflation to contain the purchasing power and demand, actually full-employment... So definitely, probably the case for a rate is high due to advocates of a low interest rate regime... Inflation definitely again is not a problem if real wages increase, or at least remain constant... That would also contain the negative effect on demand and growth... Demand is actually the money... more money-supply increases the volume of money in hand...  The GoI advisors also underscore investment in infrastructure... to remove one of the major road block to investment, because without affordable transport products will find it difficult to create demand... We are restricted to the urban areas, but with a 60% population residing in the rural areas, need retailing facilities... Centre of development nearby villages should be promoted to create job opportunities for youth... We are inviting so much of capital investment but if our supply side does not improve especially food... it will result in inflation and high interest rates too soon... between periods of short trade-cycles... more cycles relative to peers... too much frequent changes in expectations... Supply-side will keep the INDIAN growth-rate volatile... too much fluctuations... If we import good food it will have a positive effect on human-capital... Low interest rates are a good opportunity to invest in food...  

No comments:

Post a Comment

"Everybody is worried about rate cuts and nobody for lower interest rates on savings, when all save and few borrow..."

Growth is sacrificed when the value of the money is sacrificed because spending goes down due to inflation, and people buy less due to high ...