Sunday, January 4, 2015

Germany should not fear QE..


Europe is almost on the verge of using the unconventional method the Fed (US’ central-bank) used to increase income and demand, but Germany is objecting for its own reasons... Germany’s way of increasing exports is different from the regular practice... currency depreciation... also because it is unavailable... It is member of the European Union and uses the Euro to increase the German living-standard... Yet, it has carved a way-out to give its exports a thrust... Internal devaluation, opposite of the external-devaluation... When there is more money-supply, there is more inflation and more depreciation... It depreciates the home currency which people buy with their own currencies... they can buy more local-currency and demand more local products...  prices fall relative to the quantity of money... they get cheaper... But, prices can also fall when money-supply and exchange –rate remain constant with a consistent policy regime... called internal-devaluation...  Germany have cut-down on wages and prices... which made its exports competitive... Germany has a trade surplus... Nevertheless, QE means more supply and inflation which the Germans object... But, i think that fear is baseless because even if we go through the evidences the US present, even after so much of the QE, inflation barely reached 2%, even Japan is a very good example... when bank-deposits and currency notes become substitutes at the Zero-Lower-Bound (liquidity-trap)... Europe is close to that area... It is hard to achieve inflation because people expect lower-prices during a slowdown and any stimulus would make them expect that prices will fall because of more production and already unsold inventories... It will keep on reinforcing lower price expectation... when people are already feeling low inflation... The old quantity theory of money is no longer valid in the case of developed-world, far from supply-side constraints... Germany should not worry QE, inflation would not rise and ultimately when QE is over, all the other members will recover by letting the prices go down... the German way... If everybody can pursue depreciation to come out of depression, after the end of the Gold-standard, and were successful, why they all cannot practice internal-devaluation... Because it is no longer between Germany, France, Italy...  It is now between the Euro-area and rest of the World, the competitors are changed... I’am sure when everybody will try to cut wages and prices as per the needs there still must remain minor differences in price and wages across the Union... They even exist within any industry (differences...)... The Euro-area is a big cartel (now)... But, in a democratic world people are more powerful...  And, in Economics Perfect-Competition is the ideal market which maximizes welfare “of the people”... People consume more, save more and the economy invests more... But, hardly observable anywhere... Perfect-Competition also means highest possible competition... In any market price competition is the father of all competitions... And, German’s have learnt it right... There is actually no reason to think the paper currency as scarce when the Central bank can print them to reduce unemployment and misery... But, Germans have mastered the art of increasing real money-supply and real wages and income, means lower-prices... QE will actually help Germany... It will increase its people's income through increased money-supply in the Euro-area...

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