The case for maintaining 30% of the CRR in
foreign-exchange and gold will ultimately improve liquidity and money supply to
the economy because we (banks) are, now, less required to maintain domestic
currency... It will increase domestic liquidity, by the same, 30%... (And, with
supply-constraints it is likely to increase inflation)... When
money-supply-improves it affects the long-run-rates which ultimately guide
short-run-changes... Thus, a 30% increase in money-supply will also reduce
market rates around 30% in the medium-term... For-example, if interest-rates
are near 10%, a 30% increase in money-supply, will reduce rates by atleast 3%,
to 7%... So, it is almost equivalent to reducing interest-rates... RBI (i
think) in a good-spirit does not want sacrifice macro-economic stability at
this cross-road... However, RBI’s fear that a strong-rupee will deteriorate the
situation is baseless... Because, when your currency becomes strong it also
depreciates the reserve-currency which is actually a again, actually it is a
kind of speculation, gold (too)... But, again, when you have so much big
presence in the market, protected by tariffs, you can actually affect the prices
or real-prices... By just moving the threshold (30%)( up-and-down) it can
affect demand and supply and ultimately the price of our reserve-currency and
gold as per the RBI’s requirements to shape expectations... No central-bank is run
for private business... it is run for price-stability and full-employment...
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