Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Exports Might Help Increase Jobs and Growth...






Even though INDIA has so far relied on the domestic demand for growth, external demand could also be pursued for a higher growth-rate, when some of the sectors of economy have been overburdened for employment, like agriculture, when it has depressed the wage rates and incomes by the oversupply of labor, however there are fewer value addition jobs that contribute to productivity and real-GDP in manufacturing and services due to low skills base, moreover construction has also attracted unskilled labor that is abundant which is also responsible for lower wages, demand and growth. INDIA has a large pool of unskilled labour which might be diverted from agriculture and construction to manufacturing and services and export oriented businesses by imparting skills according to the industry demand. Lower paying sectors and industries are responsible for lower wages coupled with lack of skills and low demand and growth. INDIA so far has resorted to domestic demand also due to low manufacturing and exports, but now it must look-up for exports which has the potential to provide jobs and increase employment opportunities. As we know, INDIA has a much larger young-working age population, but the economy is lagging by creating less jobs and demand. INDIA needs to create 1.7 million jobs every year for 10 years to absorb the labour-force that is increasing 10% per 10 year, but slow pace of investment might obstruct the economy’s long-run target to provide full-employment.



Poor people's’ marginal propensity to consume is higher; therefore the accelerator is bigger than the investment multiplier, because all wages are consumed because of the subsistence wage theory. Capitalists bid the wages at the minimum or subsistence wages, moreover inflation also lowers real wages by inflation, but it also reduces the value of investment, profits and savings, which counters the argument that inflation reduces the value of debt; inverse of the debt-deflation dynamics by Fisher, inflation would affect everybody in terms of the purchasing power, investors should invest when inflation is low and increase supply when and where prices are high, lower prices also increase real wages and contain demand for wages. However, depreciation and higher expected inflation may be responsible for higher nominal exchange rate and exports. But, lower real wages at home might reduce domestic demand for demand of exports. The inflation in INDIA has gone down in the recent past which has also made the rupee stronger which is likely to reduce the current account deficit and the RBI’s neutral monetary policy stance has also yielded in terms of stronger exchange rate.  However, lower inflation might also make the economy competitive and increase exports.

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