In the backdrop of the
2008 financial crisis or the Great Recession the economists came to the
conclusion that the economy must be given the stimuli of the monetary and
fiscal policy to lower unemployment which reached double digits in the
aftermath of the crisis with falling inflation which also made the Fed target
higher prices while embarking on the quantitative easing program. The
discussion centered around to lower unemployment and creating job
oppourtunities in order to avert falling demand and prices for which
money-supply was kept high to flow in to businesses with excess capacity which
took time to increase because of low demand or higher unemployment, it was
mainly about creating jobs to lower unemployment and increase inflation through
wages instead of price-stability to increase demand, consumption and investment
spending, it also increased depreciation and exports and lowered trade-deficit
for some time. But, with excess supply of labour wages remained low and showed
less pressure build up to increase demand, inflation and growth for a long-time;
however the focus was on creating jobs and lower unemployment or achieve
full-employment to arrest or increase falling growth which has been the primary
objective besides the secondary objectives of price stability and
full-employment of the economic policies. This might also help the policy
making in INDIA to align policies to achieve its objective of providing
productive jobs to its workforce, productive because it mostly uses unskilled
labour which has kept wages and incomes depressed even though the workforce is
fully employed. The higher proportion of
unskilled labour has kept productivity and wages low when higher inflation in
the past had also kept real wages low that resulted in low demand and growth in
the preceding years. The NREGA the flagship program of the previous UPA government
even though increased employment, but failed to increase productive assets and
human capital which led to higher inflation and wage demand and diverted
resources away the market. The former government increased intervention in the
market to increase jobs that are not so productive and may increase wage cost
and lose competitiveness, however it tried to increase competitiveness by
cutting real wages with inflation, as done to increase depreciation and
exports. In 1991 our former PM in his stint as the Finance Minister tried depreciation
to revive the economy. Even when free market and liberalisation is widely
hailed the NREGA program is a direct intervention of the government to create
jobs oppourtunites without increasing productivity, because when employment is
increased it creates demand in the economy, but if production is not increased
it would result in inflation and low real wages, moreover it would result in
crowding out of private investment, the private sector would become costly and
lose competitiveness. Therefore, NREGA is only a short term jugaad to provide temporary
jobs without skills which actually should be provided by the market which is
against the market principle, however if the government had spent on increasing
productivity through investment in education and skills development according
to the market it would have increased production and lower inflation, moreover
productivity had also increased wages or real wages also because of lower
inflation. The NREGA worked well for the politicians, but has made people
dependent on the state for employment without their skill development, it is
only a short-run fix for the problem of unemployment, unskilled labour-force
and jobs which is also a drag on the Public-Finance that also needs re-orientation
to create productive assets and human capital that would also help increase
tax-base in the economy...
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