Wednesday, June 21, 2017

The economy needs stimuli...






Lower growth and growth expectations and inflation and inflation expectations for the quarters ahead have raised concerns for the policymakers to push the economy through stimuli and incentives in order to keep investment and employment high while targeting inflation lower than 4%, however we, now, also have a Monetary-Policy-Committee (MPC) and three of its members are government appointees to represent government on the board which also underlines its commitment to keep prices in check and also assure cheap credit to businesses and low unemployment. During the past government higher public spending led to country wide overheating which reduced real wages and demand later in the economy, both consumption and investment spending suffered due to lower real wages and real interest rate and savings and investment due to higher inflation and nominal interest rate to restore prices by reducing some employment and demand, even when we had already cut on real wages by inflation, both lower employment and real wages set the contractionary forces that ended up with slow growth. Nevertheless, the higher growth rate we saw during the current government is lower than 10% growth we achieved during the UPA rule, but the inflation and unemployment are at comfortable levels which may help us continue investment on increasing infrastructure, innovation and skills to increase productivity and real wages, and, demand and growth in the economy. The lower prices would also increase exports demand, the economy would have better jobs in manufacturing and services when the agriculture sector has been over burdened for employment which has reduced the share of income per worker. Notwithstanding, lower prices might help increase spending, but if wages increase too that would help increase real wages and demand, Keynes also viewed higher wages to increase (effective)-demand... We have evidences of relationship between income and demand, for example in the international trade higher nominal exchange rate or income helps increase demand for exports, since prices go down relative to the nominal exchange rate or income... Lose money supply could also help increase real wages and domestic demand if we lower borrowing cost and the overall price level... INDIA is labour abundant, therefore it would be cheap to use labour intensive line of production to increase employment, using automation would need skill development to use technology or capital intensive techniques in production which has a low base in INDIA, but needs to be acquired to increase productivity... Improvement in technology or innovation would help increase productivity after full-employment, which would help save labour and increase production... According to the labour theory of value, amount of labour decides production and value of a product...

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