The Fed (US) rate hikes
are likely to slowdown inflation and growth rate which it would itself correct
by lowering the interest rates in the future… In a way the Fed itself is
creating booms and busts, but inflation and inflation expectations has changed
the model a lot, now, instead of higher inflation and inflation expectations we
have lower inflation and inflation expectations which has changed the interest
rate and interest rate expectations i.e. lower interest rate and interest rate
expectations, both long-run and short-run interest rate expectations, whenever
money-supply is increased it increases expected inflation that decides the
interest rates. But, the Fed is reinforcing inflation and inflation expectation
to increase spending, consumption and investment which has not worked as was
supposed to and has also increased savings due to higher inflation expectations,
higher inflation and inflation expectations have actually reduced spending due
to low real wages and wage expectations and lower real interest rate and real
interest rate expectations have also delayed investment. However, lower oil
prices have increased real wages and spending evident in the months low oil
prices, it increased savings of the average household and spending too. Lower
and controlled price and price expectations would increase real wages and real
interest rate and expectations, and lower nominal interest rates and
expectations would help increase spending, consumption and investment and
savings, all… Lower nominal interest rate or borrowing cost due to lower
inflation would help achieve full employment and PRICE-STABILITY and at full
employment the Fed may try to stabilize the price-level and price-level
expectations, and increase real wage and wage expectation and demand, exports,
too, and growth and expectations and higher real interest rate and real
interest rate expectations because of lower
prices would also help increase investment because it would be cheap to
invest now and it would not be delayed with the help of the neutral
monetary-policy… It would help the economy to achieve the potential growth rate
at 3% sustainable over a period of time with price stability and price
stability expectations and (/or at) full-employment…
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