Demand and inflation
would increase when (real) wages/income/savings/investment will increase and
that would happen when prices would fall because in the short run income is
fixed or is lower due to unemployment.
The neutral or natural
or zero real rate of interest would neither increase/ decrease
demand/supply/price at full employment with neither inflation nor deflation
Wicksell...
In this situation
nominal interest should also converge to zero, zero real interest rate and zero
nominal interest rate...
When it is the time to
expect inflation through real wages build up (after full employment) amid low
oil prices (lower transport cost) which was a key for inflation the Fed has
increased interest rate and interest rate expectations which would lower
demand/supply/investment/employment/inflation and
demand/supply/investment/employment/inflation expectations leading to lower
price level or inflation and inflation expectation.
At full employment and
full investment supply would be highest which would tail or converge to
(highest) demand with more investment/employment and trade and would increase
the economic rate of growth.
Prices might rise or
fall depending on demand and supply.... which increases first..., in trade
cycle... but in the short run there is a limit in which price can move on
demand or supply.
Due to lack of data on
demand/supply for whole economy the Fed might miss the inflation target, but it
is easier to gauge inflation in the short run through the consolidated data on
demand and supply in the economy.
Exuberance is common…
higher demand-higher supply and lower demand-lower supply and price changes or
volatility or inflation deflation.
The stock market is an
ideal market place or model of the economy...
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