Thursday, November 30, 2017

GST, Real-Estate and the Monetary Policy...





There might be three tax rates for the three classes rich, salaried and poor... 28%, 12% and 0%, respectively... The government has said that tax slabs of 12% and 18% could be 15% keeping revenue neutral in the mind...


Zero rate on things bought with wages by poor is quite encouraging, 15% for the salaried is not discouraging too... 28% for rich only on lux and sin goods would help revenue and would improve health outcomes for all...


Flexibility to deal with demand/supply shocks by adjusting prices to the economy would help the policy makers to increase investment/employment and growth during slowdown...


A lower tax would incentivize businesses and consumers and increase demand for investment and employment...


A low and single tax rate would neither incentivize nor disincentivize the subjects... and thus neutral...



Over supply in the real estate has resulted in low demand relatively, therefore there is a downward pressure on the prices and price expectations also for investment which is holding back the recovery...


Builders are rich people who can hold in the expectation of higher prices ahead, but it may not materialize soon due to limited income of the people in the short run and lower price and expectations by investors and buyers due to higher supply...


Therefore, to increase real income of the people the builders might lower prices that increase demand in the short run...


INDIA has a huge demand for its population which increase higher price and price expectation in the medium to long run...


The builders might invest the profits at other profitable locations to increase returns... At lower prices more people could afford buying and investment...


If prices fall 4% builders could earn that money from bank deposits...



Why the government should bear the burden of recap when it was a fault of the Monetary Policy, due to whatever reason, government pressure too, more populism, more public spending at the cost of the private sector...


Resources are limited, when we divert them, labour and capital, it should be more productive or lead to lower prices, demand and growth...


But, this was not the case... Nonetheless, it ultimately goes to the RBI to solve the problem again leading to lower prices, higher demand and growth...


Again diverting resources from their current use might increase interest rate and create uncertainty which could be solved by printing more currency which could be used effectively, more productivity uses and lower prices, demand and growth...


If it reduces cost and prices there could not be much argument against it... Printing more money if it leads to lower prices seems right...


A resolution to dilute government debt every year would help improve the finances if the government helps increase productivity and reduce the price-level or inflation and expectations seems justified...


The public debt of the sovereign is the result of profligacy in the past, fiscal deficit of 3% (inflation adjusted) should be allowed... not over it in any case... It would help all...


INDIA,s long term growth is supported by fundamentals... Higher rate of the population growth, employment and demand and higher investment and supply and higher growth...


Higher unemployment, lower wages and lower interest rate and lower prices and cost are signals for more investment due to higher prices or inflation and inflation expectations due to higher demand and supply in the medium to long run...



Higher fiscal deficit if it increases productivity, lowers prices and interest rate would increase demand and growth…



Nonetheless, INDIA’s growth has reached 6.3% in the current quarter (July-September) which could easily go up due to lower interest rate and higher investment and employment and supply which could lead to lower prices and higher demand and growth…   




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