The price level or the
general price level and expectations affect real interest rate and real wages
and incomes and expectations which decide the level of all spending –
consumption and savings and investment or debt fuelled spending.
Nonetheless, the
central banks job is to target a real interest rate and expectations (too) to
increase investment to full employment and full growth through the general
price level and expectations.
During deflation and
low growth it adopts an expansionary policy or lower real interest rate to
increase investment employment income demand prices supply and growth and
during high inflation and high growth it controls prices to keep real rates and
savings and again investment stable.
We see that investment
again increases investment until full employment is reached in the expectation of
higher prices and if the agents believe that a particular rate of inflation is
consistent with full employment or the nairu rate they would not invest more in
the expectation of higher nominal interest rate and the spending and growth
would be stable.
Clearly there is a role
of communication in the whole process to increase the credibility of the
reserve bank in forming rational expectations by achieving price stability and
full employment.
Nonetheless, the
unemployment or jobless data are too late in INDIA compared to the US.
The data on unemployment
is a crucial part of the policy making at the central bank because its
objective of the full employment, the RBI rarely talks about the unemployment
rate while deciding the nominal interest rate.
And, a higher
unemployment rate means that there is excess capacity in the economy to
increase productions supply and lower prices.
The RBI actually works
with a late data on unemployment and a month old data on inflation.
The monetary policy
would be more consistent and credible when we have updated information on both
unemployment and inflation.
If there unemployment and
inflation in the economy it means we have an excess capacity which could be
used to lower the general price level increase demand employment and growth.
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